The tour isn't over, but is shaping up to be the hottest on record by far. Tadej Pogacar, largely considered the favourite to win the tour, is on record saying that if he had it his way, the entire professional road cycling calendar for elite events would be changed to have no events in July or August to accommodate our rising temperatures. If wanting to change the timing of a 123 year old event to handle modern climate isn't a sign of collapse, I don't know what is. The writing is on the wall, folks.

Wildfires in Canada bring smoke everywhere…

The Secretary of War highlights a real problem, but I'm not sure he likes the solution. It is well known that testosterone levels in men have fallen dramatically over the last half-century, and with them the number and quality of sperm produced by the average man. It is also known that chemical pollution has a great deal to do with this phenomenon. But the government to which Mr Hegseth belongs seems to be quite fond of pollution.

The frequency of smoke from wildfires blanketing the US States have quadrupled during 2020-2024 than the previous years. Americans are breathing record levels of wildfire smoke. Smoke exposure shattered records in 2023, partly because of smoke from Canada's worst wildfire season on record traveling over densely populated areas of the eastern U.S. In 2025, Canadian fires have so far burned an area more than double the country's 10-year average, making this the country's second-worst wildfire season and again spreading unhealthy smoke to the Upper Midwest and parts of the Northeast. Just one year later, we are facing yet again smoke from wildfires from all the way from Canada. We can't deny that climate change is turning us into Blade Runner's atmosphere. This is what collapse looks like. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/climate-change-worsens-wildfire-smoke-2025

https://www.reddit.com/r/ecologie/s/EaULOIPjrm

In June 2026, grocery store prices were up 2.5% while items purchased fell -1.8%. Consumers are buying fewer items while spending more money.

The growing number of consumers buying fewer items, trading down to cheaper brands, and relying on promotions suggests that many households are moving from discretionary spending cuts to changes in everyday necessities.

If these trends persist, retailers are likely to respond with more aggressive discounting, manufacturers may see weaker demand for premium products, and consumer spending, the engine of the U.S. economy, could continue to soften in the months ahead.

Made this after I saw on article that growing seasons had changed. I added the part about the same areas that are currently drought stricken.

As someone who gardens, not sure anywhere in the U.S. is truly ideal even within high opportunities areas. These areas are prone to extreme flips in temperature and precipitation, which I believe is largely because the AMOC is in accelerated decay.

Most concerning being California where:

• California accounts for about 11-13% of the total value of all U.S. agricultural production, making it the largest agricultural state by sales.
• It grows nearly half of all U.S. vegetables.
• It produces more than three-quarters of U.S. fruits and nuts.
• California produces more than 400 different commodities, more than any other state.

More about the map here.

I have been hyper fixating on the El Nino numbers and the possibilities of 2027 are terrifying. Based on the data, I believe it is now theoretically possible that we could reach a 1.9°C to 2.1°C annual average temperature anomaly for 2027.

To see the predicted monthly temperature anomaly for early 2027, go to University of Miami NMME Forecast Viewer Portal, keep plumes checked and switch the variable from RONI to GMT (Global Mean Temperature).

Starting right now, the models show monthly global air temperature anomalies shooting upward, reaching an ensemble mean of 1.9°C in early 2027. However, roughly half the individual models pass 2C and 7 individual models pass 2.5C, which is of course cut off -raise the Y Axis!

The NMME graph methodology does appear to be on the conservative side as well: looking at the observed temperature you will see it is lower than many data sets. For example, it places the July 2025 monthly anomaly around 1.1°C, whereas Copernicus C3S recorded a 1.25°C anomaly for July 2025 using the exact same 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline.

James Hansen predicted 1.7C for 2027 in December 2025 well before the strength of the current El Nino was understood.

Even much more conservative IPCC scientist Zeke Hausfather predicts 1.61C for 2027 but with a range of 1.4C - 1.93C. (prediction made April 30th, 2026).

I am predicting between 1.9C - 2.1C anomaly for 2027.

Conservative optimistic scenario Math for 1.74C in 2027:

3.5C El Nino ONI peak - .5C (subtracting warming of oceans already included in baseline) = 3.0C RONI or peak El Nino heat with background warming deducted.

1.44C - 2025 Global mean ocean and air temp anomaly (during minor La Nina year)

+.3C - (Each 1C El Nino Anomaly = roughly .1C increased temp anomaly following year, so 3C RONI El Nino prediction = .3C extra heating 2027)

1.44C + .3C = 1.74C 2027 anomaly.

However, the numbers above are conservative and assuming this El Nino will be like previous El Nino's.

2.1C warming Math:

1.44C temps in 2025 were suppressed by La Nina so changing the baseline to 1.5C seems reasonable (assumed current 1-year global temp with ENSO neutral).

.31C in conservative math above is assuming this El Nino heats the atmosphere like other El Ninos.

However, that seems ludicrous when you look at this graph!!!! https://imgur.com/a/ITGNncd

Model Consensus predict this El Nino staying above all previous El Nino and super El Nino peaks for 6 months!!!!! And this graph is the average of 13 different global climate models and 643 individual ensemble members!

The amount of heat that is about to be unleased from the ocean into the atmosphere is going to be absolutely unprecedented in human history.

Because massive heat is predicted to be sustained for a half-year plateau instead of a brief spike, my hypothesis is that the global atmospheric response will double to 0.2°C of heating for every 1°C of El Nino anomaly.

So finally, the formula is as follows:

3.0C (Roni Anomaly) X .2C (Hypothesized Godzilla heating multiplier) = .6C of extra warming

1.5C (assumed baseline) + .6C (El Nino heating) = 2.1C for 2027

Even if this is dismissed at an extreme outlier, we should be building our society like we do bridges, designed and built for worse case scenarios.

1.9C - 2.1C is now a physically possible reality for 2027 (or at least a 12-month running mean that includes warmest months of 2026 and 2027).

Related to collapse because 1.9C - 2.1C in 2027 = not good

I'm interested to hear perspectives from people in this sub around levels of in-person connection with others who share your level of collapse awareness.

Do you have one or two people you talk with about it?
Do you have an abundance of people on the same wavelength?
Do you feel isolated in your awareness in offline life?

Any thoughts on how in-person connectedness affects your responses to collapse most welcome.

Russia planning attack on Poland to test Nato resolve, US warns - The Telegraph

Lifelong resident, new weather phenomena of the last few years.

There's a lot happening with data centers across SC right now and most people I talk to have no idea how far along it already is — Google's been in Berkeley County since 2007, there's a $2.8B project in Spartanburg that's only creating 27 jobs, and now a gigawatt-scale one is being floated near the ACE Basin in Colleton.

Curious if anyone here is near one of these — what's the mood in your area? Are the moratoriums actually slowing anything down, or is it already a done deal?

I do realise this isn't even a drop in the ocean to what others have to deal with, but this is unlike anything I've seen in the UK.

The latest forecast from the NOAA's CFSv2 model shows the peak SST anomaly in the NINO3.4 region is supposed to hit around November of this year, reaching noticeably above the 4°C mark. In the context of El Ninos even this roughly 0.2°C change since the last forecast is significant.

We can also see the model spread getting smaller, meaning the predictions are increasingly certain now. Buckle up, a wild ride is upon us.

This is the UK government's assessment of the effect of ecosystem collapse.

It makes for very interesting reading.

First derivative discontinuity found in the Indonesian Thoughflow in CMIP6 model averages near the present +1.5C.

This paper is mainly about the "Indonesian Throughflow".

What is it, and why should we care?

On Earth, there is only one passage (excluding the Suez) between the three major tropical oceans allowing major heat and salinity exchange at the tropics. As this paper puts it,

Unique to the Pacific basin is a tropical conduit, the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), that allows water converging in the tropics, sourced largely from the Mindanao Current [Wyrtki, 1961] to escape from the Pacific into the Indian Ocean.

Just as the long-term strength of the Gulf Stream tends to closely track the strength of the deep downwelling current, the AMOC, the strength of the Indonesian Throughflow tends to closely track the strength of deep upwelling Pacific current, despite there being in both cases other return routes available.

However, on the multidecadal timescales investigated here we demonstrate that regional winds and associated changes in the upper ocean circulation cannot explain the projected ITF decrease. Instead, the decrease is related to a weakening in the northward flow of deep waters entering the Pacific basin at ~40°S and an associated reduction in the net basin-wide upwelling to the north of the southern tip of Australia. This can be traced back to consistent changes in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean overturning, although questions still remain as to the ultimate drivers.

Similar to the Gulf Stream being cut roughly in half by collapse of the AMOC, under extreme 4XCO2 forcing in CMIP6 models, the Indonesian Throughflow falls by slightly over half (figures S4, S6).

So, how much decline have we seen so far? None. How much decline do models expect we ought to have seen so far, now that we're at around +1.5C over preindustrial? Essentially zero. How much have we actually seen? Zero. How much is seen in the 1% annually increasing simulations when warming reaches 1.5C? Very little.

But when models pass the current ~1.5C, suddenly it starts declining significantly.

Interestingly, the decline of ITF transport in response to atmospheric CO2 forcing is weak when the CO2 mass is less than approximately 3 × 1015 Kg (i.e., 385 ppm, Supplementary Fig. S3a) or greater than 8 × 1015 Kg (red dots in Supplementary Fig. S3b), but is very rapid in between, indicating a nonlinear response of the ITF transport and its components to external CO2 forcing. The decline trend of total ITF transport (ITFTS) in response to CO2 forcing is 0.81 Sv per 1015 Kg when 3 × 1015 Kg < CO2 mass < 8 × 1015 Kg, but drops to 0.31 Sv per 1015 Kg when CO2 mass is greater than 8 × 1015 Kg, and 0.21 Sv per 1015 Kg when CO2 mass is less than 3 × 1015 Kg (Fig. 2b). The decline rate of the ITF shows a peak of 0.93 Sv per 1015 Kg when CO2 mass is about 4.5 × 1015 Kg, which is about 4 times of that when CO2 before 3 × 1015 Kg and 3 times of that when CO2 after 8 × 1015 Kg. These features suggest that a CO2 mass of ~ 3 × 1015 Kg and 8 × 1015 Kg might provide two important turning points (Fig. 2).

ITF Transport decline suddenly kicking in around the current warming level would mean that warming after the present looks to be qualitatively different from the warming we've already experienced. Less freshwater and heat is transferred to the Pacific. Shoaling of the warm surface rapidly increases, the surface temperature of the Pacific goes up more rapidly, and a lot of models have it rapidly slipping into a permanent El-Nino like state. Figure S5a of linked paper shows a warming hole north of New Guinea, with warming of the surface 200m dropping to near zero for the entire period, likely negative for the period after the present. This would seem to be shoaling of the thermocline depth rather than cooling of the surface, which other sources show continuing to warm significantly.

In any case, the effect in reality would look like more like an individual model realization, likely with a transition much sharper than the already sharp transition in the mutli-model ensemble average.

We've gone from a crawl, to a jog, to a sprint towards total collapse. You see it, I see it, and our neighbors who don't yet see it soon will. Money (i.e. whatever currency your country has chosen to base itself upon and that you have stored up in a bank somewhere, all abstract numerals on a digital screen) will cease to have material value at some near point. Resources (the tangible sort) will reign king. I accept and acknowledge this -

But, now, in the interim, in which I still have to pay bills to remain housed, in which I still pay for overpriced planet killing gasoline so that I can go to a job that barely covers the cost of my care, money matters... I find myself unsure.

When would be the ideal time to blow through it? I've already stopped paying any medical debt I've had. No student loans, though I've gently informed my husband that paying his off is a waste. No children. Just time until the collapse - I mean, we're already in it, but I more specifically am talking about the collapse of banks and the broader economy.

I want to see Japan before this is all over. I want to spend what I have before it's worthless. I, also, don't want to miscalculate and fuck us over with a year or two of homelessness leading straight into the big event.

What are you all planning with your funds? Do you even bother saving anymore? Do you have some metric or line that, once crossed, you'll be pulling money out and spending?

We are in our early 30s, no intentions on children (wild imo to have them at this time), and make a decent middle class wage. I've already waved away any delusions of home ownership (what will a deed actually prove once law is irrelevant?) or retirement, so I havent been saving much at all. Enough for any pressing medical needs for the pets, as well as for ourselves, but that's it. I've got a good chunk tucked away in trusts & inheritance, though, and I can call those in anytime. Should I do that now? Wait another year? The fires of this season, the El Nino forecast on the horizon, the egomaniacs with their fingers on the trigger of a nuke - its all making my itchy to spend money before I'm dead.

What about you?

Hoping this can stay posted.

I know this is location and individual dependent. I define normal loosely as: the average person being able to obtain work, enough to feed and shelter a family.

Predictions are all over the place. It seems like the institutional science committees tend to downplay the situation with a few exceptions on the fringes, so it's hard to tell what the best prediction is.

(I disclose my research falls in between "not even bothering" and "reading multiple key publications")

This is the only place I have to interact with other individuals who are aware, I've had the typical responses we've all faced when sharing in real life, so I've stop discussing this topic in person.

Im hoping the ultra doomers can sit this one out (I get the sentiment, I feel the pull to be one)

Id like to hear from the "level headed people" who have read the multiple publications and are not being influenced by politics, to give an unbiased answer.

I'm NOT saying don't answer if your a "doomer", I'm saying don't please don't post in this thread if you haven't read multiple publications on the subject, I'm sorry I'm not sure watching youtube or TikTok's count unless the person on the video has credentials you can point to. No hate, I just want to get the most academic answers.

I remember talking about aliens with my grandmother. She wasn't religious at all, yet she denied the possibility of aliens so strongly, linking it somehow to her own afterlife (even though she admitted she didn't really know or have strong beliefs about what happens then). That stuck with me. If even non‑religious people feel their worldview threatened, what happens when society at large has to face it?

Most ordinary people cling to purpose through work, resources, and competition. We fight over oil, panic about climate change, and treat Earth as if it's all we have. But if extraterrestrial civilizations exist (likely with technology far beyond ours, able to travel outside the planet), doesn't that shatter the foundation of our struggles? What happens to religion, nationalism, and everything we've built our meaning on, if suddenly Earth is no longer the only stage for our lives?

This post is made as noticeably more mainstream outlets and the recent U.S. Congress testimonies have started to bring up the possibility of extraterrestrial life.

If some day it is proven, will it cause a collapse of our current society - its forms, systems, orders, and way of life?

I personally would love to know if they really do exist, but I'm also worried about how it would change our society, especially the collapse of worldview and faith that some people (like my grandmother) have held onto for their lives.

"This article is a warning. A global food crisis is likely approaching — driven by the collapse of supply chains feeding the agri-food system, a consequence of the war against Iran and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect has gone largely unnoticed by most political and economic actors"....more at link

Finally someone did the actual heavy lifting on this:(https://www.reddit.com/r/skeptic/comments/1s0nj6s/i_spotted_posts_claiming_light_can_destroy/). The UV headlines follow the exact same pattern as every other "scientists discover solution" story - real research, completely mangled takeaway.

The fragmenting thing is what gets me. We're not even debating whether UV works; the question is whether "works" means anything useful when the output is just smaller, "harder-to-track" particles. You didn't clean anything. You just made the problem less visible.

And that's kind of the whole story of microplastics management - isn't it. Every intervention we have either moves the particles somewhere else or breaks them into something we can measure even less. The controlled reactor stuff sounds promising until you remember we're talking about treating wastewater while the rest of it is already in soil, air, blood, placentas, Arctic ice.

What I keep coming back to is something I haven't seen addressed in mainstream coverage at all - nanoscale plastic particles apparently carry an electric charge based on how they're manufactured and how they degrade. If that's real and consistent, it changes what "inert" even means. Charged particles behave differently at biological barriers. They bind differently. They don't just sit there.

Nobody seems to be seriously funding the neutralization angle - not cleanup, not filtration, actually stripping whatever reactivity these things carry at nanoscale. Maybe that's because it's not feasible. Maybe it's because we're still pretending the reactor solution scales somehow.

Either way the accumulation is just ongoing...