Nate Hagens explains why our debt-based financial system is finally colliding with energy and resource limits. Using Japan and silver as examples, he argues that "biophysical gravity" is reasserting itself over paper wealth, marking a systemic shift as we approach 2026.

Civil War in South Sudan, storms & disasters cause large casualties, measles rises in Eurasia, an AI-only social media site surges, and the Doomsday Clock ticks closer to catastrophe.

Last Week in Collapse: January 25-31, 2026

This is Last Week in Collapse, a weekly newsletter compiling some of the most important, timely, soul-crushing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see/can't-look-away moments in Collapse.

This is the 214th weekly newsletter. The January 18-24, 2026 edition is available here if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also available (with images) every Sunday in your email inbox by signing up to the Substack version.

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The "Doomsday Clock" has ticked 4 seconds closer to midnight, and now sits at 85 seconds to "midnight," a point symbolizing a "hypothetical global catastrophe" such as Nuclear War. The Clock had recently moved from 90 seconds to 89 seconds in early 2025.

"Hard-won global understandings are collapsing, accelerating a winner-takes-all great power competition and undermining the international cooperation critical to reducing the risks of nuclear war, climate change, the misuse of biotechnology, the potential threat of artificial intelligence, and other apocalyptic dangers….competition among major powers has become a full-blown arms race….With the addition of freshwater from melting glaciers and thermal expansion, global average sea level reached a record high….the accelerating evolution of artificial intelligence poses a different sort of biological threat: the potential for the AI-aided design of new pathogens to which humans have no effective defenses….Perhaps of most immediate concern is the rapid degradation of US public health infrastructure and expertise….The United States, Russia and China are incorporating AI across their defense sectors, despite the potential dangers of such moves…..the AI revolution has the potential to accelerate the existing chaos and dysfunction in the world's information ecosystem, supercharging mis- and disinformation campaigns…" -selections from the press release of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

A vicious winter storm killed 85+ from Texas through Maine, burying some communities under as much as two feet of snow. A heat wave in Southern Australia set some new records at 50 °C (122 °F), for two consecutive days. Authorities estimate as many as 380 migrants may have drowned making an attempt to cross the Mediterranean last week; 50+ were already confirmed dead. Flooding across southern Africa killed 100+ and displaced hundreds of thousands—also spreading cholera and crocodiles.

Scientists say that 72% of the CO2 absorbed by the oceans each year are due to only 36% of the ocean—namely in "ocean fronts," the boundaries between water masses that result in stronger upwelling & downwelling of water & nutrients. Phytoplankton, carrying CO2, are pulled downward, bringing carbon deep underwater for decades or centuries.

Scientists say Arctic & permafrost melt increases nutrient runoff which leads to microbe population growth, contributing to a feedback loop that includes greater carbon emissions and soil pollution. One author writes," these ecosystems are changing more quickly than they're being understood." Other scientists say nature is losing its ability to regulate the climate, and that our transgression of tipping points will trigger a domino effect that is impossible to undo. Coral mass dieback is underway, ice sheets will be destabilized, and the AMOC is likely to be shutdown within 100 years (or 20-30, according to James Hansen).

Italy declared an emergency in its southern regions, following landslides caused by Cyclone Harry. South Africa felt record hot nights for January, while several places in central Africa recorded record hot January days. Padang (pop: 1M+), Indonesia set a new all-time heat record at 35.4 °C (96 °F). Storm Kristen killed five in Portugal.

A Nature study concludes that "the population experiencing extreme heat conditions is projected to nearly double if the 2.0 °C threshold is reached, increasing from 23% (1.54 billion people) in 2010 to 41% (3.79 billion) by 2050, with the largest projected populations affected in India, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and the Philippines." Some scientists predicted last year that we might see the first year with 2 °C warming as soon as 2029.

A study examining heat waves over the Caribbean over 55 years found that urban areas experienced an average of 3 extra heat wave days in 2025 than they did in the early 1970s. El Nino events also "raise heatwave temperatures by about 4.6°F (∼2.5°C) and increase events by about 2.15 per heat season, across the Caribbean."

A not-quite-fully-edited study in Nature Communications found that the southern half of the Amazon rainforest is seeing annual precipittion declines of about 4-5 mm per year, "resulting in an 8-11% decline in annual precipitation….this reduction in precipitation is primarily related to widespread deforestation in the southern basin and upwind regions over South America. Deforestation substantially suppresses forest -sourced moisture, increases atmospheric stability and moisture outflow, leading to precipitation reduction…climate models substantially underestimate the sensitivity of precipitation to deforestation, implying that the Amazon forest is at risk of major loss much sooner than previously projected….previous estimates of Amazon tipping points for major forest "dieback" could be reached much sooner than expected."

Argentina's President declared a state of emergency because of the wildfires raging through Patagonia, damaging about 450 sq km, roughly the size of Curaçao. Wildfires in Chile continue to burn. Easter Island felt its hottest January night, while Sao Tome and principe broke their January day heat record for the 7th time in January, with the last temp measuring about 34 °C (93 °F). Moscow (metro pop: 12.7M) broke a 203-year record for the snowiest January on record. Greenland temps surpassed 15 °C warmer than normal for January, while the Bahamas felt their hottest January night.

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Though microplastics are, and will be, a major health threat going forward, a Nature study concludes that "fewer MP particles are emitted into the atmosphere than previously thought." But a British study of the waters around Britain in 2024 found that microplastics in the ocean were more-than-double findings from 2022 and 2023.

Six Eurasian countries (Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Uzbekistan) have lost their measles-free status. Several Asian countries' airports began screening for Nipah virus, following an outbreak of the incurable & deadly virus in India; unfortunately the 5-14 day incubation period for the disease leaves room for cases that may slip through. A study from December found that yellow fever cases are growing as human communities continue encroaching on dense Amazon rainforest land.

A study into the strangely high cases of Long COVID & brain fog & mental illness in the U.S. concluded that the elevated rates are probably due to a reduced stigma about these conditions, rather than from any particular other factor. So the side effects of Long COVID are probably similarly distributed elsewhere across the world. Another study found absentee rates in school are 2.5 times greater with students diagnosed with Long COVID.

In a moment of hopeful news, PFAS concentrations in whales dropped by 60% from 2011-2023, following the phaseout of certain PFAS compounds. In a moment of bad news, the U.S. EPA has been directed to cut standards for for PM2.5 particles by the end of next week.

Government debt for developed countries continues to rise, even as the job market lags behind hopes. Observers fear that these long-unsustainable levels of debt will make borrowing more money less possible if/when governments encounter a serious crisis that necessitates rapid borrowing & spending, like a pandemic or War. Aging populations, declining birthrates, and looming infrastructure projects also endanger the structural stability of these economies. The United Nations is also facing a potential financial Collapse resulting from extensive programs and large, unpaid member state fees; their coffers may run dry as soon as July.

Gold hit a record $5,219 on Wednesday, while silver hit new highs before falling along with gold later in the week. Copper also hit new highs; tungsten, too. Elon Musk applied to launch one million satellites into low-earth orbit… And Moltbook, an AI social media site, has become perhaps the first space on the internet for hundreds of thousands of AI programs (millions?) to call home, posting and interacting with each other in a kind of slop-singularity; it will not be the last such AI experiment to shock you.

A study on the relationship between Russia-Ukraine tensions in 2021 and 2022 and their resultant impacts on fuel prices & consumption found, across six countries, that "coal-fired generation rose by 23%, driving a 10% increase in CO2, 19% in PM2.5, 10% in NOx, and 24% in SO2." The reason? Russia began disrupting its natural gas exports to Europe, leading to higher prices and more coal consumption as a result. The proportion of total energy production during this 510-day period rose 23% above the previous baseline. The researchers attribute approximately 1,285 premature deaths to this coal spike, along with 11,700+ "serious illnesses."

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A Civil War is flaring up in South Sudan. Forces loyal to the country's Vice President (who shared power in an increasingly fragile agreement with the president) seized locations in the country's east. Government operations have been launched to retake the territories. 180,000+ have already been displaced. A military commander for South Sudan's government called for no quarter ahead of operations targeting enemy forces. The conflict, long characterized by ethnic dimensions, has moved into open warfare, with seizures of armaments, hit-and-run attacks on government positions, and various calls to commit atrocities. Refugees and unrest from Sudan, as well as crippling malnutrition, are making the situation even worse. South Sudan's first civil war ran from 2013-2020 and resulted in the deaths of almost 400,000 people.

Sudan's government forces claimed to have broken a siege of a city in southern Sudan (pop: ~190,000). Continual reports of sexual violence, sometimes witnessed by captive family members, are emerging from Sudan—which can also result in slavery and/or forced marriage. Drones are transforming the Sudan War like many other modern conflicts, and granting the rebel RSF forces greater power to deny the enemy—and to wreak havoc on civilians trapped in the middle. Who needs an expensive bomber and aerial training when you can more easily afford a swarm of disposable drones usable by a teenager? Some 14M people in Sudan have been displaced, since the War began, with about 30% of them out of the country.

As Hamas presents resistance to disasrming for phase two of the Gaza Peace Process, Donald Trump's "Board of Peace" is assuming powers over the management and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, though it is not clear to anyone exactly how the administration of the territory will proceed. Israel's PM insists on the demilitarization (of Hamas and other Palestinian groups) of Gaza before reconstruction begins. Many Palestinianians believe the Board of Peace is basically colonialism dressed-up to look like redevelopment—and that forcible displacement of Palestinians lies in the not-too-distant future. One thing the IDF and Hamas can almost agree on is the death toll of Palestinians since October 7th; both parties estimate it to be between 70,000-72,000. Saturday strikes in Gaza killed at least 30 Palestinians.

A trade war is unfolding between Colombia and Ecuador, ostensibly over Colombia's soft handling of migration; energy politics also play a growing role. The U.S. is allegedly deep in negotiations with Artengina to use the South American country as a destination for deportees—until such time as they can be sent on to their home countries, anyway. A large coltan mine Collapse in the DRC killed 200+ people. Burkina Faso's junta government dissolved all political parties in an effort to prevent opposition from organizing.

North Korea tested two ballistic missiles in the Sea of Japan. Myanmar's ruling junta won 341 of the country's 420 parliamentary seats following the last phase of elections; a new President will be chosen in March but nothing will fundamentally change. It has been 5 years today since the military junta took over Myanmar in a coup.

At least nine Nigerian soldiers were ambushed and slain by Islamic militants near the country's border with Niger. Militants attacked a location near the airport of Niger's capital (pop: 1.6M), claimed by ISIS fighters. U.S. forces struck al-Shabaab targets in Somalia 23+ times in January 2026, approximately twice the average strikes per month when compared to last year.

An American "armada" is moving towards the Persian Gulf, potentially planning to strike Iranian targets as soon as next week. Seven scenarios have been pitched for what could happen next—including a chaotic Collapse of the Iranian regime. Military drills are ongoing. Meanwhile, American threats were issued to the new Venezuelan President to ensure cooperation with U.S. interests—or risk further military action. And Trump declared a national emergency regarding Cuba because, in his words, "The Government of Cuba has taken extraordinary actions that harm and threaten the United States. The regime aligns itself with — and provides support for — numerous hostile countries, transnational terrorist groups, and malign actors adverse to the United States." Trump also is imposing tariffs on countries that supply oil to Cuba, in an effort to bring Cuba to the edge of Collapse, and regime change.

Russian strikes continue pounding Odesa (pop: 1M). A few reports are emerging of Bangladeshi men trafficked by Russia into frontline combat roles, following promises of working as cleaning staff in Russia. Negotiations continue inching forward regarding security guarantees for Ukraine after the shooting stops. President Zelenskyy has set a target of 50,000 Russian casualties per month; he claims 35,000 Russians were killed in December.

A 16-page think tank report on the Ukraine War indicates that "Combined Russian and Ukrainian casualties {killed & wounded & captures & missing} may be as high as 1.8 million and could reach 2 million total casualties by the spring of 2026." Roughly 1.2M of those projected casualties are Russia's, with about half as many being Ukrainian. Grinding attrition warfare, increasingly reliant on small drone systems, are generally providing the defender with battlefield advantages. "In 2025, Russian manufacturing declined at its fastest rate since March 2022….The country also faced a labor crunch. Oil revenues lagged with lower global prices….Russia will likely continue to fall behind in emerging technology. There is little chance that Russia will reintegrate into global trade and the financial system in the near term."

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Things to watch for next week include:

↠ The New START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia is set to expire on Thursday, February 5th. The treaty limited the number of nuclear warheads which can be deployed by the U.S. and Russia—as well as ICBMs, bombers, and other delivery systems.

↠ Following a very cold January in North America, a polar vortex is expected to unleash cold temperatures to the east coast US & Canada over the next couple weeks. A more depth explanation is available here if interested.

↠ If there's going to be (more) American intervention (bombing) in Iran (pop: 93M+), it's probably going to come soon, observers say. Some people think intervention has already been decided, and that it's only a matter of time now. Anything from heavier oil sanctions to full regime change is on the table.

Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:

-The before and "after" COVID periods marked a phase shift on the social lives of many individuals and communities—and there appears to be no going back. This self-post from U/No_Departure7494 discusses the enshittification of society starting around 2020, not limited to just COVID and its effects.

-The United States may be edging closer to Civil War, if political scientist Barbara Walter's assessments of the situation are accurate. This thread from last week maps her methodology onto the contemporary U.S. and presents warning signs for the future of democracy and peace in America.

Got any feedback, questions, comments, upvotes, winter storm wisdom, focus exercises, book recommendations, etc.? Last Week in Collapse is also posted on Substack; if you don't want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can receive this newsletter sent to an email inbox every weekend. As always, thank you for your support. What did I miss this week?

solid advice from a friendly proactive consumer advocate: Technology Connections

We need thousands of people to become highly organized in community training and development around these 3 pillars. All over the country.

The democrats are controlled opposition. No institution-corporate or government-is to be trusted at this point. They all must be rejected and resisted while we build new systems. Protesting is asking for a system that hates you to work for your interests. New strategies and tactics are required.

I'm currently working on a manual about developing these three pillars and creating grassroots emergency response teams. This is not a call to violent action; as the effects of climate change continue to pose threats, it's unreasonable to expect the government to provide proper emergency management.

We must develop self-reliance. Phase 1 is this. Phase 2 will be the development of new economic systems based on mutual aid, bartering, the development of cottage industries and development of community-oriented communication technologies. Phase 3 will focus on cultural engineering to make systems that serve communities, not a sadistic pedophile cult.

Here is a brief outline of the 3 pillars:

1 Martial arts: - Emphasis is less on combat efficacy and more on fitness, confidence building, networking, physical conditioning, and community development. - Backyard, at home, or forest gyms must be developed by purchasing boxing gloves, stand alone punching bags, soft floor tiles, training pads, etc. - These trainings must be free or donation based. - Competent instructors are needed to volunteer. - Dedicated community members can travel to Thailand for Muay Thai training - Training must be widespread and highly accessible

2 Wilderness Medicine - WFR (wilderness first responder) training through NOLS and SOLO are comprehensive but expensive. Community who can afford it members must enroll in these courses IMMEDIATELY. - Wilderness EMTs, combat medics, and other medical professionals must volunteer to train community members en masse. - Regular training (2-5 times per week) must be establish and the use of moulage is highly encouraged. - This is not just about medical skill building, but also about stress expose training, and team building

3 Ham Radio - Civilian amateur radio is essential for effective emergency management - Study workshops must be developed to train people about amateur radio - Licenses should be acquired from ARRL as soon as possible - Radio equipment should be acquired en masse - Pirate radio stations would be disruptive, illegal, and openly discouraged even though they can provide alternatives to corporate communication networks.

On top of this, there should be things like book clubs that discuss books related to activism, documentary discussions (Adam Curtis documentaries are highly recommended), and non-monitary mutual aid efforts (think food, clothes, water, shelter, bedding, etc.). More about this in phase 2, which can only happen once we have thousands of emergency response teams prepared for it.

Get to work. The future is ours! Or the future is doomed!

(Note: There is a TL;DR at the bottom of this post for those who need it.)

Introduction: Pandora's Jar has opened

I've spent the majority of my 34 years as an outside observer of the human race. As a late diagnosed Asperger's and ADD kid growing up in the UK, I was never in the tribe, I was looking through the glass and observing the fabric of my culture, how it's changed drastically, and the cause and effects. My perspective isn't taught to me, it was forged through a lifetime abuse, isolation, addiction, and homelessness but a hunger for understanding and learning. I've come back from the edge with nothing but my logic and a resistance to the systems the masses live by. What I see from the fringes is a species that has outpaced its own biology. A lot of unfortunate truths that we are unable to admit our of fear. We are told we live in an era of unprecedented progression, but I see a society in the middle of a systemic collapse.

I've come to view our modern condition as a collision of two ancient warnings: Pandora's Jar and the Forbidden Fruit. We have opened the digital pithos (the jar), releasing a swarm of beautiful evils: addiction, tribalism, and the death of privacy, while desperately clinging to Hope, which in reality is just the deceptive expectation that things will somehow fix themselves. We have eaten the forbidden fruit of total Information, only to find that we weren't built to carry the weight of a god's knowledge with the brain of a primate. (Wilson, E.O. The Social Conquest of Earth)

I'm not here to talk politics, my perspective isn't right or left, it is my own and tribalism is part of the poison. I'm here to talk about the biological reality of what happens when a species prioritizes materialistic advancement over its own nature, and how the elites ensure we stay too divided to ever notice the jar is empty.

Part 1 - The loss of shame, community and meaning

I see the rotten core in our culture that stems from the death of social cohesion. In the UK, we have traded the social glue of shared responsibility for hyper individualism and damaging, unfulfilling meaningless consumerism. Nihilism is rife in communities that once thrived on the meaning provided by responsibility to each other. In many high trust societies, order is maintained by shame and mutual respect. An internal and communal understanding that you have a responsibility to both neighbours and the broader public.

In the West, we've branded shame as an evil, and in some case shame is harmful. No-one should be ashamed of who they are, but shame is also necessary for social cohesion. We've removed the social cost for anti-social behavior (in many ways it is rewarded with positive attention on the form of likes and shares and "clout") but we haven't realized the price: when no one is ashamed, the commons - our parks, our streets, and our safety are the first things to burn.

This collapse is driven by an unfortunate truth we are too afraid to admit: Consequences are necessary regulators for our species. I do not condone abuse, but there is a massive gulf between abuse and the strict authority that once held society together. We have sterilized authority to the point of complete ineffectiveness. Youths today are acutely aware that adults, teachers, and even the police are legally and socially handcuffed. Playing football with your mates in the park is being replaced by being anti-social for fun because we've removed the deterrents.

But the youth aren't the only ones who are lost either. Many adults have abandoned their posts as role models. In the past, close knit communities with shared cultures provided a village of social activities that filled a family's time. Today, that physical community has been replaced by digital lobotomy. We consume media designed to brew division, sitting in isolated homes feeling lonely in the crowd. Social media is not a replacement for socializing but it a simulation that leaves us socially malnourished.

This digital pithos has poisoned our most intimate bonds. Finding love has turned into a swipe on a stranger, a system of dating apps that turns human beings into disposable commodities. It has created a culture of FOMO (fear of missing out) and "the grass is greener" syndrome. In this environment, relationships are weaker and easily discarded, especially when the next match is only a swipe away. We've replaced the meaning of long term partnership and community with a materialistic pursuit of better and more, leaving a trail of single parent homes and isolated individuals in its wake.

We are now a low trust society where we need cameras and guards for things that used to be self regulated by a look of disapproval or a sense of duty. We've traded the discipline of the village for the chemical rush of an endless scroll, and yet we are surprised when the world feels more dangerous and more alone.

Part 2 - The effect of division in social class and culture

I see a divide and rule strategy updated for the digital age, and it has created a profound blindness in the middle class. The university educated elite have become both confused and disconnected from reality. They are convinced that biological and social realities are meaningless, even in the face of a wealth of evidence. For them, empathy has been weaponized as a shield against any criticism, they will defend an ideology even when its effects are demonstrably negative to their own kin. In this environment, objective truth is dangerous, and identity must be protected at all costs. Rational thought is branded as bigotry, and discerning opinions are blocked to protect progress, even as the world crumbles around them. (Henderson, Rob. Luxury Beliefs Are the New Status Symbols)

To this class, the working people of their own nationality have become the enemy. They see the working man as stupid, lazy, and filled with hate for what he doesn't understand. While ignorance exists, the middle class refuses to see that the anger of the working class is a consequence of a lifetime of being ignored. Tens of millions of people have been stripped of meaning, community, and opportunity, only to be told their struggles are a fantasy or a victimhood of their own making. (The Centre for Social Justice. Two Nations: The State of the UK)

The reality is that the working class is at the bottom of a ladder where the rungs are being kicked away. We are living through an evolution that has no need for their labor and pays so little they cannot afford food. As they lose the fabric of their culture and the ability to live a life of reasonable quality, they are branded as evil for noticing the truths that only those at the bottom are forced to see.

The uncomfortable truth is that uncontrolled growth and immigration have placed an impossible burden on the working class. Our underfunded public services are collapsing under an ever increasing population. We are trapped in a housing crisis that leaves a growing population homeless in a market with more people than houses, at the mercy of wealthy landlords who raise rents while wages remain stagnant. Yet, the empathetic middle class refuses to extend that same empathy toward their own countrymen. Their familiar and cherished communities have become unrecognizable and alienating. It is noble to help those with less, but when help is offered to everyone except the people who built this country with their backs and endless toil, the social contract is broken.

We cannot allow uncontrolled growth to continue out of a fear of being labeled racist. No country has infinite resources, and a society that refuses to prioritize its own struggling citizens is a society that has lost its mind. (Putnam, Robert D. E Pluribus Unum: Diversity and Community in the Twenty-first Century)

Shared culture and meaning is necessary for a functioning society. Multiculturalism, whilst a desirable dream, is an impossible reality backed up by entire human history that proves cultural differences cause conflict. It's human nature to stand with your tribe, and to prove this, I ask one question. if cultural cohesion was possible, why has human history been filled with conflict against those that are different? Education is helpful, but how do you educate evolved biological reality built into our DNA. (Tajfel, Henri. Experiments in Intergroup Discrimination)

Part 3: Conclusion

I see it only getting worse. Progression and advancement have outpaced our species. We have taken the meaning from hundreds of millions of people, the meaning found in family, community, and responsibility and replaced it with the pursuit of materialistic goods and self fulfillment.

We are living in the post jar era. The evils are out, the forbidden fruit has been eaten, and the elites are busy making sure we stay too busy fighting over the scraps to notice that the foundation is gone. Something is going to give. You cannot strip a people of their identity, their security, and their future, and expect them to remain silent forever.

The deceptive expectation of hope is the only thing left in the jar, the internet, sold as free access to unlimited information to benefit mankind, but immediately morphed into a tool of repression, control, fear mongering and division. A tool abused by the evil to commit crime, manipulation and the cause of so much damage to an impossible number of people. It is, in all meaning of the word, an external evolution too powerful, that we are too primitive to handle.

The hope it offered is a fantasy, and as I've learned from deep observation from a lifetime on the fringe of society, hope without objective reality is just another form of poison. It's time we treated reality for what it is, before the "something" that is about to give finally breaks us all.

Humanity cannot play god. We must play by the rules set by nature or nature will punish us accordingly with no-one to blame but ourselves.

TL;DR: We've outpaced our own biology. By killing social cohesion, removing consequences for the youth, and ignoring the tribal reality of human nature, we've broken the social contract. The "educated" middle class uses empathy as a shield while the working class pays the price for uncontrolled growth and a hollowed out culture. The internet is an external evolution we aren't built for, used by elites to keep us divided while the foundation of our society rots. Nature has rules, and we are about to be punished for pretending we can ignore them.

The global elites are beginning to lose their hold on their respective societies. The people no longer trust them.

Rapid technological advancements are threatening the post-WWII capitalist, dollar-based order that is dominant today. It's becoming impossible to sustain capitalism as we know it with the inevitable arrival of AGI (whether it arrives before the end of this decade or the one after). In a last-ditch effort to cling to power, the elites are looking to copy China's model by implementing techno-feudalism wherever they have control, like in the U.S. Russia is already an oligarchic Christo-fascist state, China is a one-party technocratic police state, and the U.S. is rapidly heading toward becoming a fascist techno-feudal police state. Israel is an apartheid state. Nonetheless, resistance is growing because the people no longer trust or believe in them. The recent release of the Epstein Files confirms many suspicions, and more leaks are likely as whistleblowers leak damaging information online about a system they no longer believe in. Then, as resources rapidly begin to diminish due to climate change, and the bare minimum bread and circuse becomes unattainable for most people, the system's facade will crack, especially as the dollar collapses and hyperinflation destroys the people, while the asset-owning elites hoard gold and crypto. This will spark genuine rebellion. Despite censorship attempts, there will always be an underground internet for people to communicate on. That genie is out of the bottle. Climate disasters destroying cities and towns, combined with hunger, misery, and the life they dreamed of becoming impossible, will be the final blow to the current world order. In response, each society's elites may grow paranoid and resort to war to distract their populations and keep them at bay. They'll try to secure as many of the shrinking resources as possible to keep their fragile systems running, but this plan will fail, especially since young people now have little reason to support any "national cause." There will likely be a behind-the-scenes understanding among the elites influencing all major powers and their leaders that nuclear weapons won't be used. However, once one collapses and the people take control of it and its nuclear arsenal, they'll panic, and the nukes will start flying. The end. Reset.

Historically, collapse isn't a single event.
It's overlapping failures that don't line up neatly.

You get things like:

• Official stability + personal insecurity
• Economic "growth" alongside falling quality of life
• Institutions insisting everything is fine while quietly adjusting expectations

That mismatch seems to cause more stress than outright disaster.

Question for the sub:
Do you think we're already in early-stage collapse, or still approaching it?

This post is in no way to humblebrag or boast about my HIsTorICaL gEnIUs for r/iamverysmart, but this is a grievance that I don't think 99.99% of people share with me.

It's sad, really. School's history classes are severely watered down. People's lack of curiosity is even worse.

I'm no certified historian, but the amount of free time I had and my natural curiosity had led me to... let's just say unsavory topics that I had to digest.

Now, it would be a whole PP presentation to even understand where I'm coming from and arriving at, but I'll just make it very brief: private ownership.

Everything that has happened that led to this point has always been the fault of your forebears, the very first monkey who declared that he inexplicably (justified by "god's divine right" later on) owned a particular patch of dirt, "justified" by "strength"/the threat of violence (via himself or through bribed desperate, but strong monkeys). Nowadays, they justify it by "meritocracy" (and held up by poor people who actually bought this lie).

Everything here is not new. Not capitalism (or more aptly, neofeudalism), not plutocracy (or neo-aristocracy). They are descendants of autocracy, theocracy and feudalism. Combine those 3 together, you get monarchy, aristocracy (or "oligarchy").

Throughout history, your predecessors had voiced the same grievances as you did. That's why there's revolutions.

They're not "billionaires" or "rich people". They're plutocrats, descendants of the same system that had oppressed your predecessors. They're a symptom of a bigger problem.

Instead of isolating everything and see it as some unprecedented novel phenomenon that's borne inexplicably out of nowhere, maybe actually pick up history and learn the patterns, and actually see cause-and-effect. They're all connected, I can promise you that.

And if you actually thought that you are "free", I have a beach front to sell you in Arizona. You are, financially, functionally and systematically, a serf, to put it nicely. You are still owned by the plutocrats, the new age aristocrats. You do not have financial freedom unless you're in their small club. They can influence the way you live, and they can take away your right to live at any time.

So yeah, imagine my anger when I see people talk about "rich people" as if it's some new phenomenon. How many people can even see what I'm seeing, much less understand what I'm getting at? If you had no prior historical knowledge, this post is about as valuable as a broken mirror.

It's exhausting, really.

This post is a vent.

I'm a Latin American, and I'm very aware of how important what happens in the United States is. The rise of fascism is in full swing up there, and it projects its influence across all of Latin American society.

I don't know how to live under fascism. I was trained, by propaganda, by the education system, by the Empire itself (yes, I mean the U.S.), to move through a humanist world. And I did that well. I'm not even getting into whether that ideal world really existed in practice or not (I think the Canadian leader expressed my point of view quite well in his speech in Davos). My point is that I was trained to walk toward that ideal, to trust it, and to build my personal trajectory assuming it existed. And as a white, middle-class person, that actually worked for me to some extent.

I was betrayed. The postwar order collapsed much faster than I expected, and I was left behind. I don't know how to think like a fascist. I'm repulsed by fascism.

Death at the hands of the State feels like an increasingly real possibility for me as a vocal humanist with a "public" position (I'm a teacher). I hope that, if it comes to that, it's quick and doesn't serve to feed the infernal delirium of some torturer. The possibility of dying doesn't stop me from living. Fortunately, this clarity hasn't made me dysfunctional.

Does anyone else feel this way? What arguments have you been using with yourselves to keep "moving forward"?

SS: 'The climate crisis is here and now and this is its face in Britain, scientists told the Guardian. But the devastating impacts are accelerating faster than the work to keep communities protected, they said: torrential winter rains are arriving 20 years earlier than climate models projected. While those forced from homes engulfed by filthy water are suffering today, a darker question is looming: will some settlements have to be abandoned?

Storm Chandra, which pummelled the south-west this week, followed hot on the heels of Storms Goretti and Ingrid. New 24-hour rainfall records were set in places in Dorset, Devon and Cornwall. Setting new records is the new normal in the climate crisis.' Much more negative than last weeks article which was full of 'ifs'.

Eggs from hobby chickens in the Netherlands contain too high levels of PFAS which makes it unsafe for human consumption. Because exposure to PFAS can cause detrimental effects like decreased fertility and higher risk of developing cancer.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969725020686

The spread of PFAS in the Dutch food system may have spread even further than eggs as it shows that crops grown in PFAS polluted soil contain too high levels of the chemical.

https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/artikelen/hoe-veilig-is-groente-uit-de-eigen-tuin-bezorgde-volkstuinders-laten-grond-op-pfas-testen-149857

Research journalists found that the spread of PFAS can also be found in consumer products. Like store bought meat, fish and eggs. https://www.ftm.nl/artikelen/pfas-in-voedingsmiddelen

No surprise that the government is not saying much about that our food is toxic as that would hurt our economy.

I have a friend who lives in a city called Dordrecht where there is a large chemical plant that emits large quantities of PFAS. He told me that many of his friends in the region developed cancer and that it was well known that the chemical plant has something to do with it. Sadly the government was putting economic growth before citizen health as the plant is still standing there emitting poison in the environment.

See more about the Dutch situation in this YouTube video: https://youtu.be/y3kzHc-eV88?si=7FLjInE-TsxNMFpv

I keep running the numbers in my head and they simply do not add up anymore.

The entire economic system we've built requires constant consumption. Growth every quarter. People buying houses, cars, appliances, furniture, clothes, experiences. The GDP number goes up or the whole thing starts shaking.

But here's the problem: an entire generation has been priced out of participating.

Median home price in 1980 was roughly 3x median household income. Today it's pushing 8x in most markets, significantly higher in any city with actual jobs. Starter homes don't exist anymore because institutional investors buy them for cash above asking and rent them back to the people who would have bought them.

Wages have been functionally stagnant for 40 years when adjusted for inflation. Meanwhile the cost of housing, healthcare, education, and childcare - the big four - have increased by multiples. Not percentages. Multiples.

So you have a system that requires consumers who cannot afford to consume. People making $60k trying to exist in a $100k cost of living reality. The gap gets filled with debt for a while, but debt has limits. Credit cards max out. Student loans come due. Medical bills pile up.

What happens when the consumer base that the entire economy depends on simply cannot afford to buy things anymore? When they're spending 50% of income on rent and another 30% on necessities and there's nothing left for the discretionary spending that actually drives growth?

The people at the top seem to think they can just keep extracting forever. Keep raising prices. Keep suppressing wages. Keep buying up housing stock. Keep cutting benefits. But you can't squeeze blood from a stone. At some point the foundation cracks.

I'm not talking about some dramatic overnight collapse. I'm talking about slow motion structural failure. Declining birth rates because nobody can afford children. Shrinking consumer spending because nobody has disposable income. Gutted small towns because nobody can afford to stay. An entire generation that will never build wealth, never buy homes, never have the purchasing power their parents had.

The system requires infinite growth on a finite planet from consumers with finite resources. The math doesn't work. It never worked. We just postponed the reckoning with debt and cheap overseas labor and asset bubbles.

Now we're watching the foundation crack in real time and the only response from leadership is to tell us the economy is strong because the stock market is up.

This decade has been utter madness and it's only ramping up from here. I always saw what was coming from the last ten years of politics, but never thought it would manifest so soon and so quickly, and I feel utterly helpless to fight it.

I don't live in the US, but I see what's going on day by day and it horrifies me, all the more so seeing how bigots in my own country blindly celebrate it and hope it comes our way - which feels increasingly likely with voter intention polls.

As of last week, I finally moved into my own place and have a real chance to knuckle down and focus on improving myself, but I barely know what to focus on. I'm an active member of a people-oriented political party and directly support the committee with editorial tasks. But for my own sanity I need to feel like I'm not wasting a moment that could be spent preparing.

Whether relevant to the political situation or just more broadly, what skills and knowledge would you recommend learning and practicing to best prepare for the coming decade? What sort of work (voluntary and otherwise) would be valuable to get involved with?

An introduction to the so-called Sustainability 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-01-29/us-spends-hundreds-of-millions-on-warehouses-for-ice-detention-centers

Fully realized, this would be a total of 76,500 detention beds. And they are only for holding immigrants temporarily while they are being deported. So the actual number of immigrants deported is going to be astronomical if this is the apparatus they need to support doing that.

This articles introduces the concept of Sustainability 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0, and proposes a holistic sustainability model to avoid impending collapses.

Resignation is presented as maturity.
"That's just how it is."
"There's nothing we can do."

But accepting the unacceptable is not wisdom.

To act is to refuse that comfortable resignation.
It is to hold onto a standard, even a modest one.

Someone has to remind us that other choices are possible.
Not necessarily better ones, but more human ones.

If you're reading this and it resonates, then let's talk.
Maybe this is how something begins.

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1,2,3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

I am neurodivergent and have some AuDHD characteristics. I've seen collapse coming pretty much my whole lifetime (I am 70 now) but particularly after having this confirmed in the 1972 MIT limits to growth work.

My problem was I saw things way too early, so bought gold at $500 an ounce, built resiliency buffers into my life 30 years ago etc... while neurotypical people thought I was crazy when I would try and explain the future that was coming... ~40+ years ahead of the curve.

I just read this very interesting article suggesting these foresights are common in people with neurodivergent brains... and am curious if others have found this to also be true?

https://adrianlambert.substack.com/p/why-some-people-see-collapse-earlier/comments

So, this came up in my news feed tonight. It is the white house website. Calling Cuba a threat for "human rights violations" and curbing free press.

What timeline are we on?

Two South Australian locations - Andamooka and Port Augusta - have reached 50°C during the past two days as a gruelling week-long heatwave continues to grip several states.

Prior to this week, 50°C had only officially been recorded in SA on two occasions. These were both in 1960 when Oodnadatta reached 50.7°C on January 2 and 50.3°C on January 3.

Over the five-day period from Monday to Friday this week, 12 separate weather stations across New South Wales and SA exceeded 49°C. These locations were:

50.0°C at Andamooka, SA on Thursday 50.0°C at Port Augusta, SA on Friday 49.8°C at Marree, SA on Thursday and 49.5°C on Friday 49.7°C at Pooncarie, NSW on Tuesday 49.7°C at Tarcoola, SA on Friday 49.6°C at Renmark, SA on Tuesday 49.6°C at Roxby Downs, SA on Thursday and 49.4°C on Friday 49.5°C at Ceduna, SA on Monday 49.2°C at Borrona Downs, NSW on Wednesday 49.1°C at Fowlers Gap, NSW on Tuesday 49.0°C at Wanaaring, NSW on Tuesday 49.0°C at Woomera, SA on Friday

It's likely that other areas of outback SA and NSW exceeded 50°C this week in between official weather stations.

Source: https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/australia-records-first-50c-in-four-years/1891172

It's late, my mind gets hyperactive, the random sadness sets in and I begin to reflect on stones that are better left unturned... But here I am.

I keep having this memory of walking through my town in 2019 and seeing how lively it was. There was this one area where people would gather behind some building complex, I don't know how to explain it. A playground, picnic tables, all of it... And today I drove past and saw it was empty. For the life of me I could NOT figure out if I was hallucinating or if people had really once gathered there - Cut to: google Earth historic satellite imagery.

As I suspected, around 2021 they removed all of the the tables, benches, playground, etc - and now it's just an empty plot of grass. For some reason this fucks me up and I can't get over it. Something about lost time, another part feels like we were living in an entirely different dimension, etc.

This feeling is ubiquitous in my life. A profound sense of - BEFORE and AFTER since the winter of 2020....

The only hopeful sentiment I can provide is that on Twitter there was the image of a timeline... It showed 2018 - 2019 - and when it reached 2020-2025 the timeline turned into a big ball of yarn, a tangled mess... but then corrected itself and continued onto 2026, meaning that maybe we're past those strange 5 years. Maybe now we can finally move on?

Societies made out of flesh and blood humans need food for the humans.

Every way of making food in quantities that are big enough to be useful to civilization needs a river system with at least eight or nine million acres of cropland, roughly the size of the U.S. state of Maryland. If the cultivated land is smaller than that then all the surplus can support is the bronze-age stuff, with maybe some horses for raiding and pillaging on top.

So, a list of places that can survive for 100 years or longer into the future under conditions of global collapse must be restricted to the valley lands around big river basins. Although most collapse subreddit enjoyers aren't rich enough to consider moves to these places, it is interesting and the list of them isn't very long, so I've decided to write it out for people to see. The thing that matters most is reliability. If a place makes enough food 9 years out of 10 and then everybody starves in year 10, it's worthless.

North America, Central America and the Caribbean

The Colorado, Rio Grande, Sacramento, Columbia-Snake, Fraser and Tombigbee river systems, along with the southern half of the Mississippi valley, Atlantic seaboard south of the Chesapeake and all of Central America and the Caribbean will have occasional superpowered heat domes, maybe one every ten years, that kills everybody stone dead and cooks their corpses. It's just rolling the dice. Those heat domes happen everywhere in the climate change future but they are worse and worse the closer people get to the equator.

• The upper Mississippi-Missouri and the Ohio will have mosquitoes carrying malaria and occasional mega-floods that kill all of the lowlanders but a surviving society might survive long-term. There's no obstacle to keeping cereal crops going in the places that aren't dependent on the Ogalalla aquifer. This might be a major reason for the Trump administration's focus on Minnesota, but it's unlikely that the administration has enough brains to think about these things.

• The same applies for the Atlantic seaboard, starting at the Susquehanna and going up to Quebec. Like the Mississippi system the climate-change powered super heat domes will be survivable at this latitude instead of fatal, but there is a real risk of megadrought when it comes to decades and decades. Ideally, anybody looking to build something that lasts will make the Hudson valley the southern limit of their options.

• The Canadian prairie, either draining into the south or into Hudson Bay, has too much of a risk of drought after drought, plus, most of the soil is useless to a farmer who doesn't have a combine harvester and a million bags of potash to work with.

• The Mackenzie, Yukon and miscellaneous Alaskan river systems are pretty promising. Once the forests burn up and get replaced with temperate tree species they will get heat domes but they won't be that bad.

South America

There will be infrequent, once-a-decade lethal heat domes in a lot of places, including the Urabamba valley the Incan civilization was once built on. The only places where it isn't guaranteed are Chile and Argentina.

• Chile, today, is a major net food exporter on the basis of several different river valleys that are all breadbaskets. They all rely on Andean meltwater and will die when the glaciers finish melting away into nothing.

• Argentina, today, is a major net food exporter on the basis of exactly four river systems that are all breadbaskets. From north to south, the Rio de la Plata is forecasted to get lethal heat domes, the Argentinian Colorado will dry up, the Río Negro will be perfectly fine and the Patagonian watershed south of the Río Negro will be perfectly fine.

Europe and Africa

The last few years have seen many news stories of droughts making the rivers of these regions useless for agriculture. Factor in the heat dome projections for the big rivers like the Zambezi and there aren't many options left at all.

• The River Shannon runs through Ireland. It looks to be decent in the long term, with the heat domes only being bad enough to kill most old people and livestock.

• The mountains of Norway and Sweden will get enough of a snowpack for agriculture to continue, if their attached croplands aren't nuked a gazillion times by any of the possible belligerent neighbours in their future. When CDR politicians joke about a nuclear deterrent, be very afraid.

• Finland and Russia north of a line from Bryansk to Samara have really poor soil, so they will probably only get one harvest of wheat per annum, but they will not have any real problems with heat domes or megadroughts.

Asia and Oceania

In the climate of the near future, most of these places will get a heat dome that kills everybody about once a decade, or maybe more often than that. The exceptions are in Japan, New Zealand, Manchuria, Siberia, Yakutia, and maybe some of the Himalayan valleys. On a case by case basis:

• Japan (roughly north of Shikoku). The heat domes won't be that bad and the floods won't be that bad. The only question is whether they can survive category 6 hurricanes.

• New Zealand has the same situation as Japan right down to the picturesque stratovolcano, but they have a little bit more arable land.

• Manchuria will have pretty bad heat domes and mosquitoes but the Amur river will keep going.

• Siberia and Yakutia are basically the same so I'll lump them together. They have a bunch of rivers which are very promising (particularly the Yenisei) mixed with the tough combination of terrible soil and needing to replace all of the tree cover with stuff that doesn't burn in giant wildfires. If you are currently learning or fluent in Mandarin, consider spending an hour looking at topographic and biome maps of the vast frontier that might come to pass if China betrays Russia and launches an invasion.

• The Himalayan valleys of Nepal, Tibet, Myanmar etc are heat-dome resistant and will continue to get regular water supplies after all the glaciers are gone, thanks to the monsoon. Some excellent research has found that the South Asian Monsoon, as a weather phenomenon, will keep going even if there is 30, 40 or 50 metres of sea-level rise and accompanied ocean salinity reductions. However, the flooding may destroy every single building a society in the mountains can build. It's a mystery.

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Will all of these places have societies in 2100, 2200, 2300...?

It's unlikely. The collapse of civilization will produce billions of hungry mouths who go to war over the limited supplies of food. Wars may well prevent the formation of surviving societies by killing all of the potential founder populations and there might not even be founder populations, since the world has less and less people with farming know-how each year. Not to mention the effects of disease, crop diseases, biological warfare and metal shortages, which are forecasted to all be pretty huge problems. If there is no available ore for making plows, there won't be any plows. But I would bet that two, maybe three of these places are statistically likely to persist, disappointing the antinatalists and efilists lurking on this forum.

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Special thanks to Dr. Jack Alpert of the SKIL Foundation, whose YouTube videos inspired this essay. Sources for cropland area, productivity and crop data are scattered around the UN Food and Agriculture website at https://fao.org and the heat dome projections are drawn from Vecellio et al (2022)'s work using the CIMP6 and ERA5 datasets. Furthermore, I'd like to point out that although Google is increasingly bad at getting results, the image results for "[river name] map", such as "Magdalena map" or "Murray-Darling map" were all pretty good.

The most important document published by the UK government since the general election emerged last week only through a freedom of information request. The national security assessment on biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse was supposed to have been published in October 2025, but the apparatchiks in Downing Street sought to make it disappear. Apparently there were two reasons: because its conclusions were "too negative", and because it would draw attention to the government's failure to act.

It echoes warnings some of us have made for years, only to be dismissed as nutters, doomsayers and extremists. It tells us that "ecosystem degradation is occurring across all regions. Every critical ecosystem is on a pathway to collapse (irreversible loss of function beyond repair)." This presents a threat to "UK national security and prosperity". It says "the world is already experiencing impacts including crop failures, intensified natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks. Threats will increase with degradation and intensify with collapse."

The results will include geopolitical and economic instability, increased conflict and competition for resources. "It is unlikely the UK would be able to maintain food security if ecosystem collapse drives geopolitical competition for food." It also warns that "conflict and military escalation will become more likely, both within and between states, as groups compete for arable land and food and water resources".

It provides a powerful vindication of certain messages that, when voiced by environmentalists, have been greeted with hatred, fury and denial. For example, it tells us that "food production is the most significant cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss", that "animal farming at current levels is unsustainable without imports" and that "the UK does not have enough land to feed its population and rear livestock: a wholesale change in consumer diets would be required".

I'd be lying if I wrote: "I hate to say, 'We told you so.'" After years of insults and abuse, I say it with pride.