Yemen might be the first country to actually run out of water

I just made a video about Yemen and honestly learned some pretty disturbing stuff.

The country was already running out of groundwater before the war even started. This was not drought. It was decades of pumping ancient aquifers faster than they could recharge. Wells got deeper, water got more expensive, and people without money slowly lost access.

By the early 2000s, experts were warning Sana'a could become the first capital to physically run out of water.

Most of Yemen's water goes to farming, especially qat, which only sped things up.

Once water disappears, everything else follows.

The war did not cause this. The water crisis made Yemen fragile.

I made a short documentary style video breaking it down if anyone's interested. Just wanted to share because this feels like one of those slow disasters we do not notice until it is everywhere.

The last nuclear treaty between Russia and America has expired and neither Congress or the Duma have any interest in renewing or reformulating.

We (he) pulled out of the climate accords, later than we wish his father would have pulled out.

But I wanna talk about another issue, one that seems to be flying under the radar lately.

This recent article from Foreign Policy is primarily concerned with flagging - that is to say, when a ship uses literal false flags to operate in protected or contested waters. This may not immediately conjure images of collapse but it seriously compromises the estimates of the IPCC and other NGOs that are basing their models on the beautiful idea that nobody lies.

This is collapse related because just like methane and plastic pollution - this is yet another variable that is not taken into account or, perhaps, intentionally ignored.

Things are bad. That might be the most honest thing you can say about this decade. But they are far worse than what is presented by the "official" figures and studies.

*"It is worse - much worse than you think" *

• David Wallace-Wells

Waymo's confirmation that some of its autonomous vehicles receive assistance from remote human operators based in the Philippines has intensified a debate in Washington over how autonomous robotaxi systems truly are — and whether offshore human involvement introduces new safety, cybersecurity, and accountability risks. The issue first drew wider public ... [continued]

The post Waymo's Fully Autonomous Vehicles Have Fleet Response Agents in the Philippines appeared first on CleanTechnica.

Public Health Cannot Wait Almost Three Years Today, Donald Trump's Environmental Protection Agency gave a group of polluters a 33-month extension to clean up coal ash dump sites. This is twice as long an extension as what the EPA had proposed last year. According to the Sierra Club's Trump Coal Pollution Dashboard, ... [continued]

The post Donald Trump Forgoes Enforcement of Toxic Coal Ash appeared first on CleanTechnica.

Spain's prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, is looking to make a bold move and lead the way on an issue most of the world is struggling with but doesn't know how to handle. He wants to ban social media use by kids under 16 years old in Spain, calling social media ... [continued]

The post Is Spain's Prime Minister Right Banning Social Media For Kids? And How To Do It? appeared first on CleanTechnica.

Drought and wildfires continue to adversely affect US beef production. Ground beef prices specifically continue to rise. Since hamburgers are a fundamental part of the American diet and a god given right, the President is taking action to ensure that demand is met. Rather than admit that this is a direct result of climate change and adapting our consumption we'll just import more from Argentina.

Collapse related because this is how it's going to go, isn't it? As wealthy countries lose the ability to produce their own food due to climate change we'll just buy it from other countries. It'll be fine, right?

Last year we bought a combination washer and heat pump dryer and have been pretty impressed. Not only does the machine offer significant convenience where you put a load of clothes in and literally two hours later it is both washed and dried, it also uses a small amount of ... [continued]

The post Our New Combo Washer/Heat Pump Dryer Uses Less Than 1 kWh of Electricity Per Load appeared first on CleanTechnica.

Like are people genuinely delusional enough to think that we're going to somehow magically escape this planet and all the destruction our civilization has directly caused and just start from scratch elsewhere? It's hilarious. Comical even. Terraforming a place like Mars would take centuries. It isn't practical. The universe is too vast.

I'm all for going into space and developing new technology like reusable rockets and so forth. But it feels like so much of this hoo rah, go team! hype is just artificially created to distract people from the grim reality here on Earth: increasing environmental destruction, technofascism, erosion of basic civil liberties and rule of law. Like a bunch of sycophants endlessly obsessing over rockets like a dick measuring contest and the "good ol days" of the 60s and 70s Space Race which was the result of a unique geopolitical climate that will likely never be repeated.

It just seems pointless to me. We have at best 30-40 years (very generous estimate) before things get very bad and unbearable here with climate change. We're not going to do anything significant in space within that time period. Sure, we might send more advanced satellites out. But this whole idea that we're going to colonize other planets or moons I just don't think is realistic. Why not focus all this effort and endless media sensationalism towards solving all the real, dire problems here on Earth first?

Like is this just a situation where the psychopathic, neo-Nazi, tech billionaire CEO oligarchs are attempting to ultimately create some new subspecies or master race of elite, obedient worker drones to build and thus join the new colony, leaving everyone else behind to die from either nuclear war or climate catastrophe? It seems that way in my view. They clearly know this planet is cooked, hence them building bunkers in remote locations. Hence them investing all this money and time into anything relating to space travel. Hence them buying governments and creating an alternate reality using social media where everyone who serves their interests is allowed to afford a somewhat decent life, and everyone else is doomed to a life of poverty.

Even if we miraculously manage to do all this in that time, what's the point? What's the point in starting from scratch on another world if the way our society views energy consumption now is still stuck in the 18th century? If our entire society is still based on primitive ideology? We're literally just going to destroy that place too. Like a cancerous tumor. What do we do then? I highly doubt this new colony would have a sustainable civilization separated from capitalism (socialism, etc), since that'd in turn diminish the need for and power of the oligarchs entirely. They'd be incredibly stupid to not continue hyper unregulated capitalism/fascism on this new planet too.

Curious to hear what other people think about this. This kind of stuff truly keeps me up and night, and I can't really talk about it with most of my friends irl.

This forum should not be tool of patriarchy.

Capitalists want you to believe that competition and death is normal.

That patriarchal violence is the default for humanity, and that it's always "dog eat dog."

Think where you first learned that, my brothers.

Who taught you that? A bully, a father, a coach, a religious leader? An abuser?

Take a breath.

Feel emotions.

Open your eyes.

Life is a circle, a cycle.

Fear is the mind killer.

❤️❤️

As soon as you drive over the top of the Peak District and down into Sheffield you can see the light pollution - and it's horrible, said a participant in a research project into darkness and light pollution.

In the last 100 years, the places where people can experience darkness have reduced dramatically. Now only 10% of the people living in the western hemisphere experience places with dark skies, where there is no artificial light. And the starry skies they can see are limited by artificial light. The number of stars that people can see from most of the western hemisphere is getting fewer and fewer.

Researchers trying to find out about public attitudes to darkness attended events over three days in the North York Moors National Park. Here, in one of the UK's seven dark sky reserves (where light pollution is limited), the researchers explored how immersive and fun experiences, such as guided night walks and stargazing and silent discos, reshaped public perceptions of natural darkness and sparked ideas of what they might change in their lives.

Working with a professional film-maker, the research team recorded how people responded to taking part in events in darkness. Participants in the research included five tourism businesses, two representatives from the park and 94 visitors.

Light pollution is increasing globally by approximately 10% per year (estimated by measuring how many stars can be seen in the sky at night), diminishing night skies and disrupting ecosystems.

But increasing awareness of light pollution has led to an increase in national parks hosting events to explore this issue, according to my recent study.

The study's findings indicated that participants in the North York Moors Dark Sky Festival events not only started to feel more comfortable in natural darkness but also talked about changing their own lifestyle, including using low-impact lighting in their homes, asking neighbours to switch off lights in their gardens at night, and monitoring neighbourhood light levels.

The research team used filming and walking with visitors to capture not just what people said, but what they did in darkness. During guided walks, participants experimented with moving without head‑torches, cultivating night vision, and tuning into sound, smell and learning how to find their way around without artificial light.

Walking in silence helped visitors build a deeper connection with the nocturnal environment. One visitor said that being in the dark just for that moment of peace, and just to listen and tune in to the environment was a privilege and something to conserve.

One said: "I remember as a child I'd see similar stuff from a city [and that] sort of thing, and now we're doing whatever we can do to save things like this."

Visitors reported leaving with new skills, greater awareness and commitment, such as putting their lights at home on timers, and working on bat protection projects. These actions demonstrate that this kind of experience in nocturnal environments can change behaviour far beyond festivals.

Dark Sky activists, such as those in the North York Moors National Park, have learned that the public connect with the issues around light pollution and become more engaged if the activities are fun.

Shared experiences help people understand complex messages about climate, biodiversity, and responsible lighting, and help people feel more confident about walking in the dark. Several participants commented that walking without light was good and wasn't as bad as they thought. Another said: "I find walking at night with a full moon is really quite a magical experience."

By the end of the walk, some visitors (when on relatively easy ground) were happy to switch head torches off and enjoy feeling immersed within the nocturnal landscape.

Dark‑sky festivals show how joy and fun can build public awareness and an understanding of why darkness matters.

However, limited public transport to rural night events as well as safety concerns about walking in darkness, and the cost of festivals all restrict participation.

Research shows that artificial light at night disrupts circadian rhythms, impairs some species ability to find their way around and is a cause of declining populations of insects, bats and other nocturnal fauna.

There is also evidence that outdoor lighting generates needless emissions and ecological harm that is intensifying at an alarming rate.

To rethink this shift, the study argues that darkness could be considered a shared environmental "good", requiring collective care to prevent overuse, damage and pollution.

Small changes in lighting shielding (which controls the spread of light), warmer coloured lights, and half lighting (switching street lighting off at midnight) can be significant and less damaging to animal life.

The national park's next major step has been to establish a Northern England Dark-Sky Alliance to halt the growth of light pollution outside the park boundaries, particularly along the A1 road in northern England, which would help restore natural darkness for nocturnal migratory species, such as birds like Nightjars.

If we can make living with more darkness in our streets, and in our leisure time, feel more normal and more comfortable, then nighttime becomes not something that needs to be fixed, but a shared commons to be restored.

Jenny Hall is a speaker at an upcoming discussion on Cities Under Stars: Tackling Light Pollution in Cities, in conjunction with The Conversation, as part of this year's Dark Skies Festival. Find out more, and come along.

Jenny Hall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

After major disasters, public debate often treats them as unexpected or unprecedented. This reaction is not necessarily about the absence of warnings. It reflects how societies process shock - and how authorities often explain disruption as unavoidable, rather than the result of earlier choices.

Extreme weather is rarely unpredictable. Days, sometimes weeks, in advance, scientists are able to warn of an increased risk of storms, floods, droughts or other hazards. Yet the cycle repeats.

To understand why this is, colleagues and I reconstructed the scientific warnings and the official responses to major floods in Luxembourg in July 2021 - my home country's most damaging disaster on record. Those floods caused far more damage than they would have done if early action was taken, but Luxembourg isn't an outlier: many other countries suffer from the same problems we identify.

As the UN targets "early warning for all" by 2027, it's worth noting the issue is not that warnings were missing. It is that warning systems are often designed to act on certainty rather than probability - and that's not how forecasting works. By the time warnings become visible to the public, it is often too late.

Weather forecasts may look definitive on your phone, but they are probabilistic by nature. They are created by running a series of computer simulations of the future weather. The level to which the outcomes of different simulations agree with each other provides the likelihood of hazardous conditions, not guaranteed outcomes. These allow forecasters to identify elevated risk well before impacts occur, even if the precise location of an event and their size remain uncertain.

Crucially, uncertainty is usually greatest further ahead, when preventative action would be most effective. Acting early therefore almost always means acting without certainty. This is not a weakness of science, but an inherent feature of anticipating complex systems under changing conditions. The real challenge lies in how institutions are organised to interpret, trust and act on those probabilities.

Most warning systems rely on predefined procedural thresholds: alert levels, activation protocols and emergency plans that kick in once specific criteria are met. Forecasting may indicate that flooding is increasingly likely, for example, but measures such as evacuations or road closures can only be triggered after formal thresholds are crossed.

Before that point, risk information passes through many layers of interpretation and judgment, where early signals are often noted but not acted upon.

Thresholds serve important purposes. They help coordinate response, clarify chains of command and reduce unnecessary disruption. But they also embed a structural preference for certainty. Action is authorised only once risk is framed as imminent, even when credible evidence already points to escalating danger.

This attitude was apparent in the days leading up to the July 2021 floods. Our study shows that multiple forecasts at European and national levels indicated a high probability of extreme rainfall and flooding, in some cases up to a week in advance. This information was available across different parts of the warning system. At that stage, uncertainty about precise impacts remained, as would be expected. What mattered was how the system was designed to handle that uncertainty.

Because Luxembourg's response measures were tied to procedural thresholds, early signals could not translate into anticipatory action. The country's water administration and its national weather service had access to relevant information, but they operated within a framework that did not authorise a collective interpretation of what was happening or encourage action before thresholds were crossed.

This was not a scientific miscalculation, nor was it necessarily an operational mistake by individual agencies. Meteorological and hydrological services most likely did as much as their mandates allowed. The decision to wait for formal triggers was human and institutional rather than technical, reflecting a system designed to prioritise procedural certainty over sound decision-making.

By the time action was authorised, for many people it was too late. Evacuations or installing flood gates became far more difficult, particularly for communities with limited experience of such severe floods. From the perspective of those affected, warnings appeared late or did not arrive at all - even though the risks had been identified earlier throughout the system.

Luxembourg is a particularly instructive illustration of what can go wrong, because it is a small, wealthy and well-connected country. The issue was not necessarily a lack of resources or scientific capacity, but of institutional design and societal readiness to act on risk.

The effectiveness of early warning systems over time depends on their ability to learn from extreme events. This requires open, independent analysis of what worked, what did not work and why. In several neighbouring countries affected in 2021, such as Germany and Belgium, formal inquiries and external reviews were carried out. In Luxembourg, they were not.

When expert critique is discouraged or avoided, learning slows. Questions about system performance remain unresolved and the same structural vulnerabilities are likely to persist. This creates a systemic risk in its own right: societies become less able to adapt warning systems, interpret uncertainty and act earlier on emerging threats.

As someone who has worked within these systems and continues to research disaster risk governance, I have seen how asking difficult questions can be treated as destabilising rather than constructive. Resilience depends on confronting uncomfortable truths, not avoiding them.

The risk of extreme weather is increasing across Europe and beyond. Early warning systems are rightly central to disaster risk reduction. But their effectiveness depends on how societies authorise action under uncertainty. This is a choice, not an inevitability.

Uncertainty cannot be eliminated. The challenge is to decide how much uncertainty is acceptable when lives and livelihoods are at stake. Systems designed to wait for certainty - for procedural, organisational, financial or reputational reasons - are more likely to deliver warnings that arrive too late to feel like warnings at all.

If resilience to future climate risks is to be sustainable, warning systems must be designed to learn, adapt and act earlier on credible risk.

Jeff Da Costa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

One autumn evening in 2021, I was co-facilitating the first of ten creative sessions with young people in the Daimler Warehouse, Coventry. It's home to Highly Sprung Physical Performance, a partner in a pilot project called With One Breath. I was there to use theatre, photography and creative writing to explore the climate crisis.

My collaborator, Becky Warnock, a socially engaged artist, ran an exercise to take stock of how the group were feeling about the issue. She asked them to place themselves on a continuum in response to a series of statements - one end of the room meant they agreed with the statement, while the other end meant they disagreed.

It became clear that many young people are incredibly knowledgeable about the climate crisis. However, when Warnock asked them to respond to the statement, "I have a voice in climate change debates", most of the group huddled on one side of the room, showing that they "disagreed".

The climate crisis has a communications problem. How do we tell stories that move people - not just to fear the future, but to imagine and build a better one? This article is part of Climate Storytelling, a series exploring how arts and science can join forces to spark understanding, hope and action.

My research examines what happens when artists engage directly with communities through the co-creation of art. Since 2019, I have worked in collaboration with Rachel Turner-King. We have worked in a range of settings and partnerships including schools, community centres, parks and performance spaces in Coventry, Kampala and Nairobi.

We have called this work Acting on Climate. Underpinning our projects are techniques which engage young people in discussion and act as prompts to explore local environments and share stories. We are also interested in exploring the impact of climate crisis in other parts of the world, and the perspectives of people living in these places.

Young people are often overlooked in discussions about the climate crisis. And yet they stand to be most profoundly affected by it. With One Breath sought to place young people at the heart of this discussion through collaboration across borders.

The project included the use of games and techniques adapted from drama practitioner Augusto Boal's Theatre of the Oppressed. We tasked young people with using photography and film to document and reflect on the areas they live in. We encouraged them to shape the work and decide what to focus on. Three themes were identified: investigating power and responsibility; reflecting on processes of globalisation; and producing positive visions for alternative futures.

The project prompted dialogue across the two locations. While many young people in the UK felt insulated from the immediate impacts of the climate crisis, hearing from Ugandans already living with and adapting to environmental disruption made those unequal realities impossible to ignore.

Our work highlighted that young people often feel a lack of agency to make change, but also feel simplistically portrayed and tokenised as beacons of hope and change. This tokenisation places responsibility on young people to adapt to, and transform, a problem that they have had little role in creating.

Communities in countries like Uganda are frequently excluded and marginalised when it comes to conversations and action on the climate crisis, so the young people we worked with in that country faced a double bind. They are both marginalised due to their age and where they are from.

As such, this transnational project provided an opportunity to amplify voices not typically heard.

My research took on new dimensions through Fair Play Kenya 2025, a festival at the National Theatre in Nairobi as part of the British Council's Kenya 2025 season.

The festival considered relationships between climate crisis, conflict and land justice. One strand involved connecting three groups of young people from Nairobi, Derry/Londonderry and Birmingham through in person and online workshops. To do so, a partnership was formed involving Amani People's Theatre and ZamaleoACT in Kenya, The Gap Arts Project in Birmingham and The Playhouse in Northern Ireland.

During this short project, young people met online, sharing discoveries and testing ideas. The process is documented in a short film sharing their work and views.

In Derry/Londonderry, participants decided to explore land and ancient Celtic culture and the rights of nature, leading them to focus on the mismanagement of Lough Neagh.

Alternatively, in Birmingham young people were concerned by the lack of access to nature, and how this intersects with the climate crisis. Participants in Nairobi explored land justice and what land means to them in their everyday lives. A particularly striking aspect of this group's work was the reflection on Carbon Credit deals forcing Kenyans off of their land under unjust terms and conditions.

From projects such as Fair Play, we have come to understand that working creatively across borders is inherently messy, complex work. The choices that we all make on a daily basis implicate us in causing environmental harm, but an individualised approach to climate action is unlikely to succeed on its own.

Through artistic projects like ours, such nuance can be engaged with in fun, open-ended ways. For those of us in countries like the UK, the history of industrialisation and colonialism mean we are entangled in processes of exploitation and resource extraction - these must place the burden of responsibility on such countries.

Meanwhile, our work in Uganda highlighted experiences where young people are having to move away from areas that are no longer able to find jobs and how, in Kenya, climate change is one factor fuelling conflict between communities.

For the young people we have worked with, and for us as researchers, arts projects help to make visible the effects of both of this history and the climate crisis in ways that connect and resonate.

Bobby Smith received funding for With One Breath from the Arts and Humanities Research Council. Fair Play Kenya 2025 was funded by the British Council and the University of Warwick's Arts and Humanities Impact Fund.

Greater awareness of healthy diets and concerns over 'trusted' food mean sales are growing at fastest pace in two decades

When household finances were plunged into turmoil during the credit crunch, one of the first things that Britons cancelled was their veg box delivery.

But although the cost of living crisis persists, the organic market is enjoying its biggest boom in two decades, according to the veg box seller Riverford. It is not just fruit and veg, with a "massive" increase in sales of organic meat. Organic chicken was up 13% year on year, despite costing three times as much as other birds.

Wylie's Baths in Coogee turns away swimmers for the first time in memory. But people will head back into open waters soon, experts say

• Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast

At Wylie's Baths in Sydney's east, the blue and yellow-ringed upper deck has never been busier.

On the concrete below, towels are crowded together. In the water, regular lap swimmers have to contend with an onslaught of first-timers.

That's my question. Are men ready to let women lead?

Did you scoff? Let's go with that.

I'm an American millennial neurodivergent woman.

Women in my family were lobotomized just two generations ago, in cases I know of. The missing and dead women of my family will always speak through me.

All my life, I've worked in male-controlled fields and areas. High level science; corporations; international affairs.

I've often dumbed myself down for the men around me, for my own safety.

It's like speaking a different language, learning their sycophantic and hierarchical norms and codes.

It's not the language of nature, of seasons and cycles and balance.

I learned a long time ago that I could foresee trouble, but I learned that sociopathic men don't want to prevent trouble.

Cassandra was cursed, but then Cassandra was trafficked and abused after her city was destroyed.

Non-sociopath men don't want any trouble. These are the "nice guys." They still speak the same language.

Yes, I know there are enabler women. The fear and self-hate of women are the tent poles of patriarchy.

Are men ready to accept that women are more closely tied to the cycles of nature, and thus to life?

That creating life is a literal metaphysical process that has not yet been fully explained by science, and women do it every day, often under extreme duress?

Are men ready to admit that their brains are limited by man-made constructions that cause violence to proliferate across humanity?

We can share the throne of this beautiful earth.

But are men ready to let us?

As Zach recently posted, BYD's sales were down 30.7% in January. BYD sold 210,051 NEVs, which still put it in first place, well ahead of Geely with 124,252. Geely, however, also sells ICE vehicles, which saw significant sales growth to bring their total to 270,167. Due to selling primarily ICE ... [continued]

The post What's Going On With BYD January Sales? appeared first on CleanTechnica.

I've been researching Yemen for a video I just made, and honestly I learned some pretty disturbing things that don't get talked about much.

The country was already running out of groundwater before the war even started.

By the early 2000s, experts were warning Sana'a could become the first capital city to physically run out of water.

Most of Yemen's water goes to agriculture, especially qat — a cash crop that's extremely water-intensive. Farmers grow it to survive, but it just accelerates the collapse.

Once water disappears, everything else follows — people move, hygiene breaks down, disease spreads, and whoever controls wells or water trucks gains power.

The war didn't cause this. The water crisis made Yemen fragile.

What's happening now isn't recovery — it's people adapting to permanent scarcity.

Yemen isn't unique because it's dry.

It's unique because it hit the wall first.

I made a short documentary-style video breaking this down if anyone's interested. Just wanted to share because this feels like one of those slow disasters we don't really notice until it starts showing up everywhere.

The latest news from Foxconn, BYD, and Nigeria shows that the transition to electric mobility is happening all around the world.

The post EV News From Foxconn, BYD, & Nigeria appeared first on CleanTechnica.

Government plans to protect species by increasing woodland and removing greys, but campaigners say it needs to go further

When Sam Beaumont sees a flash of red up a tree on his Lake District farm, he feels a swell of pride. He's one of the few people in England who gets to see red squirrels in his back garden.

"I feel very lucky to have them on the farm. It's an important thing to try and keep a healthy population of them. They are absolutely beautiful," he said.

CHANGAN Auto and CATL of China are the partners behind a new electric passenger car powered by sodium-ion batteries, with a range-extender option and battery swapping opportunities, too.

The post Another Tesla Miss: Sodium-Ion Electric Cars Are Coming … From China appeared first on CleanTechnica.

The latest EV charging news in Massachusetts was about 105 new fast chargers to be installed for Boston Public Schools. Electric school buses have many public health and environmental benefits, so installing more chargers for them will be an advantage. Just a couple days later, the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center ... [continued]

The post Free Bidirectional EV Chargers Provided For Massachusetts Program appeared first on CleanTechnica.

What could be more romantic than those three little words: locally grown, seasonal? How to choose flowers that show you care - about both a Valentine and Australia's environment

• Change by degrees offers life hacks and sustainable living tips each Saturday to help reduce your household's carbon footprint

• Got a question or tip for reducing household emissions? Email us at changebydegrees@theguardian.com

A dozen red roses may say "I love you", but many conventional bouquets carry an environmental price, having been imported by air, dipped in chemicals and wrapped in plastic.

Valentine's Day is second only to Mother's Day for sales of cut flowers, a popular choice for the millions of Australians planning to buy gifts for that special someone.

In my previous articles, be it reportage or opinion, I seemed to have taken the side of complete opposition. A motoring journalist friend pointed out how the real issue is safety. I partly agreed with him but argued that if we look at road safety in other countries it is ... [continued]

The post Op-Ed: E-Trike Safety Is Real — But the Failure Runs Deeper than the Vehicles appeared first on CleanTechnica.

Toyota and Daihatsu Motor Co., Ltd. have begun rolling out battery-electric kei commercial vans in Japan, using a shared platform and powertrain aimed at accelerating electrification in the country's last-mile logistics sector. Toyota's contribution comes in the form of the Pixis Van BEV, while Daihatsu will sell its own versions ... [continued]

The post Toyota & Daihatsu Roll Out Shared Electric Kei Vans for Japan's Last-Mile Logistics appeared first on CleanTechnica.

Welcome to Carbon Brief's DeBriefed. 
An essential guide to the week's key developments relating to climate change.

UNLAWFUL PANEL: A federal judge ruled that the US energy department "violated the law when secretary Chris Wright handpicked five researchers who rejected the scientific consensus on climate change to work in secret on a sweeping government report on global warming", reported the New York Times. The newspaper explained that a 1972 law "does not allow agencies to recruit or rely on secret groups for the purposes of policymaking". A Carbon Brief factcheck found more than 100 false or misleading claims in the report. 

DARKNESS DESCENDS: The Washington Post reportedly sent layoff notices to "at least 14" of its climate journalists, as part of a wider move from the newspaper's billionaire owner, Jeff Bezos, to eliminate 300 jobs at the publication, claimed Climate Colored Goggles. After the layoffs, the newspaper will have five journalists left on its award-winning climate desk, according to the substack run by a former climate reporter at the Los Angeles Times. It comes after CBS News laid off most of its climate team in October, it added.

WIND UNBLOCKED: Elsewhere, a separate federal ruling said that a wind project off the coast of New York state can continue, which now means that "all five offshore wind projects halted by the Trump administration in December can resume construction", said Reuters. Bloomberg added that "Ørsted said it has spent $7bn on the development, which is 45% complete".  

• CHANGING TIDES: The EU is "mulling a new strategy" in climate diplomacy after struggling to gather support for "faster, more ambitious action to cut planet-heating emissions" at last year's UN climate summit COP30, reported Reuters.
• FINANCE 'CUT': The UK government is planning to cut climate finance by more than a fifth, from £11.6bn over the past five years to £9bn in the next five, according to the Guardian.  
• BIG PLANS: India's 2026 budget included a new $2.2bn funding push for carbon capture technologies, reported Carbon Brief. The budget also outlined support for renewables and the mining and processing of critical minerals.
• MOROCCO FLOODS: More than 140,000 people have been evacuated in Morocco as "heavy rainfall and water releases from overfilled dams led to flooding", reported the Associated Press.
• CASHFLOW: "Flawed" economic models used by governments and financial bodies "ignor[e] shocks from extreme weather and climate tipping points", posing the risk of a "global financial crash", according to a Carbon Tracker report covered by the Guardian. 
• HEATING UP: The International Olympic Committee is discussing options to hold future winter games earlier in the year "because of the effects of warmer temperatures", said the Associated Press. 

The increase in new solar capacity installed in Africa over 2024-25 - the continent's fastest growth on record, according to a Global Solar Council report covered by Bloomberg. 

• Arctic warming significantly postpones the retreat of the Afro-Asian summer monsoon, worsening autumn rainfall | Environmental Research Letters
• "Positive" images of heatwaves reduce the impact of messages about extreme heat, according to a survey of 4,000 US adults | Environmental Communication
• Greenland's "peripheral" glaciers are projected to lose nearly one-fifth of their total area and almost one-third of their total volume by 2100 under a low-emissions scenario | The Cryosphere

(For more, see Carbon Brief's in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

Solar power, electric vehicles and other clean-energy technologies drove more than a third of the growth in China's economy in 2025 - and more than 90% of the rise in investment, according to new analysis for Carbon Brief (shown in blue above). Clean-energy sectors contributed a record 15.4tn yuan ($2.1tn) in 2025, some 11.4% of China's gross domestic product (GDP) - comparable to the economies of Brazil or Canada, the analysis said.

This week, Carbon Brief travelled to a UN event in Manchester, UK to speak to biodiversity scientists about the chances of reversing nature loss.

Officials from more than 150 countries arrived in Manchester this week to approve a new UN report on how nature underpins economic prosperity.

The meeting comes just four years before nations are due to meet a global target to halt and reverse biodiversity loss, agreed in 2022 under the landmark "Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework" (GBF).

At the sidelines of the meeting, Carbon Brief spoke to a range of scientists about humanity's chances of meeting the 2030 goal. Their answers have been edited for length and clarity.

We can't halt and reverse the decline of every ecosystem. But we can try to "bend the curve" or halt and reverse the drivers of decline. That's the economic drivers, the indirect drivers and the values shifts we need to have. What the GBF aspires to do, in terms of halting and reversing biodiversity loss, we can put in place the enabling drivers for that by 2030, but we won't be able to do it fast enough at this point to halt [the loss] of all ecosystems.

Countries are due to report on progress by the end of February this year on their national strategies to the Convention on Biological Diversity [CBD]. Once we get that, coupled with a process that is ongoing within the CBD, which is called the global stocktake, I think that's going to give insights on progress as to whether this is possible to achieve by 2030…Are we on the right trajectory? I think we are and hopefully we will continue to move towards the final destination of having halted biodiversity loss, but also of living in harmony with nature. 

At the global level, I think it's very unlikely that we're going to achieve the overall goal of halting biodiversity loss by 2030. That being said, I think we will make substantial inroads towards achieving our longer term targets. There is a lot of hope, but we've also got to be very aware that we have not necessarily seen the transformative changes that are going to be needed to really reverse the impacts on biodiversity.

It's important to look at the GBF as a whole…I think it is possible to achieve those targets, or at least most of them, and to make substantial progress towards them. It is possible, still, to take action to put nature on a path to recovery. We'll have to increasingly look at the drivers.

I think for many of the 23 targets across the GBF, it's going to be challenging to hit those by 2030. I think we're looking at a process that's starting now in earnest as countries [implement steps and measure progress]…You have to align efforts for conserving nature, the economics of protecting nature [and] the social dimensions of that, and who benefits, whose rights are preserved and protected.

The ambitions in the 2030 targets are very high, so it's going to be a stretch for many governments to make the actions necessary to achieve those targets, but even if we make all the actions in the next four years, it doesn't mean we halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030. It means we put the action in place to enable that to happen in the future…The important thing at this stage is the urgent action to address the loss of biodiversity, with the result of that finding its way through by the ambition of 2050 of living in harmony with nature.  

If you look at all of the available evidence, it's pretty clear that we're going to keep experiencing biodiversity decline. I mean, it's fairly similar to the 1.5C climate target. We are not going to meet that either. But that doesn't mean that you slow down the ambition…even though you recognise that we probably won't meet that specific timebound target, that's all the more reason to continue to do what we're doing and, in fact, accelerate action.

OIL IMPACTS: Gas flaring has risen in the Niger Delta since oil and gas major Shell sold its assets in the Nigerian "oil hub", a Climate Home News investigation found. 

LOW SNOW: The Washington Post explored how "climate change is making the Winter Olympics harder to host". 

CULTURE WARS: A Media Confidential podcast examined when climate coverage in the UK became "part of the culture wars".

• 2-8 February: 12th session of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), Manchester, UK
• 8 February: Japanese general election
• 8 February: Portugal presidential election
• 11 February: Barbados general election
• 11-12 February: UN climate chief Simon Stiell due to speak in Istanbul, Turkey

• UK Met Office, senior climate science communicator | Salary: £43,081-£46,728. Location: Exeter, UK
• Canadian Red Cross, programme officer, Indigenous operations - disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation | Salary: $56,520-$60,053. Location: Manitoba, Canada
• Aldersgate Group, policy officer | Salary: £33,949-£39,253. Location: London (hybrid)

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief's weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

DeBriefed 30 January 2026:  Fire and ice; US formally exits Paris; Climate image faux pas

DeBriefed

30.01.26

DeBriefed 23 January 2026: Trump's Davos tirade; EU wind and solar milestone; High seas hope

DeBriefed

23.01.26

DeBriefed 16 January 2026: Three years of record heat; China and India coal milestone; Beijing's 2026 climate outlook

DeBriefed

16.01.26

DeBriefed 9 January 2026: US to exit global climate treaty; Venezuelan oil 'uncertainty'; 'Hardest truth' for Africa's energy transition

DeBriefed

09.01.26

The post DeBriefed 6 February 2026: US secret climate panel 'unlawful' | China's clean energy boon | Can humans reverse nature loss? appeared first on Carbon Brief.

Storm Leonardo has ravaged the southern regions of Spain and Portugal this week, leaving one man dead in Portugal and one woman missing in Spain

• Calls to postpone presidential election as Storm Leonardo lashes Portugal and Spain

An environmental expert from Nigeria, a climate policy consultant from Kenya, an oceanographer from Indonesia and an Indigenous social development specialist from the Philippines will are among dozens of experts in the UK this month as the UN's top climate body meets to rewrite the the rules for compiling the world's most important climate reports.

The workshops at the University of Reading from February 10 to 12 will lay the groundwork for bringing diverse knowledge into the next report by the UN climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The seventh assessment report, known as AR7, will be published in 2028 and finalised the following year.

There are two big themes under discussion. One workshop examines how artificial intelligence (AI) tools can help scientists review growing volumes of climate research. AI is revolutionising scientific research, with its ability to conduct faster analysis of complex data than traditional computer models. AI weather and climate models are already becoming integrated into the information provided through meteorological services such as the Met Office.

Another workshop explores how Indigenous and local knowledge can be integrated into these assessments alongside standard scientific findings. For decades, IPCC reports have been built primarily on peer-reviewed scientific papers from academic institutions, mostly in the world's wealthier nations. These workshops explore how to better include Indigenous knowledge, local observations and expertise from communities that are experiencing climate change first hand.

This could not come at a more important time. A few weeks ago, the US withdrew its participation from the IPCC process. Now, a new cadre of experts from across the world are coming to the UK to make climate science more inclusive and AR7 preparation continues with 195 member countries. The work goes on, but the US absence leaves gaps in emissions reporting and funding.

Bringing in diverse voices is essential to the report's success. If IPCC reports reflect only one way of understanding the world, they can miss crucial insights. As other sectors have found again and again, a lack of diversity in the workforce leads to a lack of insight. The environment sector remains one of the least diverse, with only 3.5% of people working in environmental jobs identifying as being from an ethnic minority. Diverse voices and critical discussions are key to making robust, inclusive and future-proof decisions.

Through my work developing flood forecasting systems across Africa, Asia and Latin America, I've learned this directly. After Cyclone Idai hit Mozambique in 2019, the Global Flood Awareness System, a service that provides openly accessible information about upcoming floods across the world, was used to help target relief where it was most needed.

In Uganda, working with the humanitarian agency Uganda Red Cross and the Red Cross Climate Centre, our forecasts helped 5,000 people evacuate before roads were cut. In Bangladesh's river basins, improving forecasts meant understanding how communities interpret flood risk. In Kenya, choosing the right forecasting approach required learning from the people who have lived with these rivers for generations.

Climate science has traditionally valued certain types of expertise. Peer-reviewed papers and university credentials do matter. But expertise also comes from generations of farmers building up understanding of local weather patterns or Indigenous knowledge about the land, forests and rivers. Scientific models, combined with community knowledge, produce better outcomes than either alone.

For the result of its latest report to be credible, the IPCC needs the best evidence from all sources, because that is what produces the best science.

Hannah Cloke advises the Environment Agency, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, local and national governments and humanitarian agencies on the forecasting and warning of natural hazards. She is a member of the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council and a fellow of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Her research is funded by the UKRI Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council, the UKRI Natural Environment Research Council, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the European Commission.

Huge thanks to my February sponsor, John Rember, author of the three-book series Journal of the Plague Years, a psychic survival guide for humanity's looming date with destiny, shaped by his experiences living through the pandemic in his native Idaho. Thoughtful, wry and humane, Journal 1 is a pleasure.

With apologies, I must head over to the mainland tomorrow. Kali is going to be very kind and cover for me in absentia. I should be back Wednesday or Thursday at the latest.

"Death, taxes and turmoil: is the age of the safe haven over?

"The plate tectonics of the global financial system are moving and in the event of a crisis we may experience a new landscape unfolding… This year… financial stability risks look set to rear their head and will do so in a climate where a safe haven no longer exists."

https://www.thetimes.com/us/business-us/article/safe-haven-assets-gerard-lyons-comment-q5mwbg8r7

"Big Tech's 'breathtaking' $660bn spending spree reignites AI bubble fears.

"Big Tech stocks sold off heavily after unveiling plans to spend $660bn this year on AI, as investors fret that the "breathtaking" capital expenditures are outpacing the earnings potential of the new technology."

https://www.ft.com/content/0e7f6374-3fd5-46ce-a538-e4b0b8b6e6cd

"The steep selloff in software stocks is spreading to the debt market.

"Pressured by growing worries about the disruptive potential of new AI coding tools, shares of large software companies such as Salesforce and ServiceNow have been sliding for months. But now the prices of software-company bonds and loans are also dropping."

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-software-rout-is-spreading-pain-to-the-debt-markets-d6dd1397

"Asian markets extend global retreat as tech worries build.

"Asian equities sank again Friday as a tech rout that battered Wall Street for the third day in a row showed no sign of letting up amid growing unease about the hundreds of billions splashed out on artificial intelligence."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-markets-extend-global-retreat-024334995.html

"Bitcoin Crashes To Around $60,000 As Historic Free Fall Worsens—Price Is Down Over 50% In 4 Months.

"Bitcoin fell below the $70,000 mark for the first time in over a year around 6:30 a.m. EST, but losses worsened throughout the day. The losses pushed bitcoin below the $65,000 figure shortly after 3 p.m. EST, and it was trading as low as around $60,256 at 7:21 p.m."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/02/05/bitcoin-crashes-to-around-60000-as-historic-free-fall-worsens-price-is-down-over-50-in-4-months/

"Bitcoin's 45% Plunge Is A Warning Of A Bigger Liquidity Problem…

"With the reverse repurchase facility practically exhausted since the end of August, liquidity will need to be financed from other sources. There is no longer excess cash circulating in the overnight funding market."

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4866544-bitcoin-45-percent-plunge-is-a-warning-of-a-bigger-liquidity-problem

"Silver Whipsaws Again as Thin Liquidity Fuels Wild Price Swings.

"Silver lurched between losses and gains, dropping nearly 10% before snapping back, as a lack of liquidity led to wild swings in a market struggling to find a floor… Spot silver rose as much as 6.2% in Asian trading on Friday, having earlier tumbled toward $64 an ounce. That followed a 20% decline in the previous session."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silver-whipsaws-again-thin-liquidity-030642370.html

"Morning Bid: Fed under pressure as layoffs mount.

"It's Jobs Friday and there is no jobs report. With non-farm payrolls delayed by a U.S. government shutdown - again - and a selloff on Wall Street going global, markets are anxious."

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-02-06/

"One path to U.S. fiscal disaster is most alarming — and most likely.

"The national debt is nearing $39 trillion. Dire consequences are coming… Upwardly spiraling debt could provoke a financial crisis. Investors anxious about the U.S. fiscal outlook would demand sharply higher interest rates to entice them to purchase Treasurys. This would ignite a self-reinforcing debt spiral."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/02/04/congress-national-debt-trillions-crises/

"Trump's trade war creating economic 'mirage' with GDP forecasts, freight market disconnected: Shipping expert…

"While headline GDP growth may look strong based on tech sector spending, actual shipment volumes for goods are relatively weak and the maritime market is oversupplied with vessels."

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/05/trump-trade-war-frontloading-creating-a-mirage-in-trade-maritime-expert.html

"UK borrowing costs rise as concerns about Starmer's future mount.

"British borrowing costs rose on Thursday as concerns grew over whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer could survive the fallout from his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as U.S. ambassador despite ​knowing about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein."

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-borrowing-costs-rise-concerns-092913960.html

"Pubs and restaurants hit with most sustained job losses since financial crisis.

"Staff numbers in Britain's services sector, which includes the hospitality industry, have fallen every month since October 2024, which coincided with Rachel Reeves unveiling plans to increase employers' National Insurance Contributions and the National Minimum Wage."

https://www.thecaterer.com/news/pubs-and-restaurants-hit-with-longest-period-of-job-losses-since-financial-crisis

"Volvo Slump Fuels Fears for Europe's Auto Industry…

"Shares in Volvo Cars plunged as much as 25% after fourth-quarter earnings missed expectations… EU industry chief Stephane Sejourne recently issued a warning, saying Europe's auto industry is "in mortal danger.""

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Volvo-Slump-Fuels-Fears-for-Europes-Auto-Industry.html

"Musk's Starlink Blocks Russian Troops' Internet Access, at Ukraine's Request…

""Looks like the steps we took to stop the unauthorized use of Starlink by Russia have worked," Mr. Musk wrote on X on Feb. 1. "Let us know if more needs to be done.""

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/world/europe/starlink-blocks-russian-troops-access.html

"Trump rejects call from Russia's Putin to extend cap on nuclear deployments.

"United States President Donald Trump has shot down an offer from Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin proposing a voluntary extension of recently-expired limits on the deployment of strategic nuclear weapons."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/6/trump-rejects-call-from-russias-putin-to-extend-cap-on-nuclear-deployments

"Credit Bank of Moscow Posts Rare Loss as Bad Loans Surge.

"A bank closely linked to oil major Rosneft has become the first among Russia's top 10 lenders by assets to post a net loss, highlighting mounting strains in the country's banking sector."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/02/05/credit-bank-of-moscow-posts-rare-loss-as-bad-loans-surge-a91869

"Russian Oil Discounts Widen for China as Indian Purchases Falter.

"As India is tentatively pulling back from buying Russian oil after the U.S. trade deal, Russia's crude is being offered in China at widening discounts to attract Chinese refiners, trade sources have told Reuters."

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russian-Oil-Discounts-Widen-for-China-as-Indian-Purchases-Falter.html

"Chinese provinces set lower growth targets for 2026.

"Most Chinese provinces are targeting lower economic growth this year, in what many economists believe is a signal Beijing will set a historically low range of 4.5-5 per cent for its official goal in 2026."

https://www.ft.com/content/7ccb65e3-b00e-4ac6-8bce-a5037c2c7d71

"China's Easy Money Floods Metals Markets as Real Economy Falters.

"Chinese speculators have driven a rally in global metals prices due to ample cash and fewer investment options. The People's Bank of China is being forced to do more to prop up sluggish growth, with the M2 measure of money supply expanding faster than nominal gross domestic product."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/china-s-easy-money-floods-metals-markets-as-real-economy-falters

"BYD's $60 Billion Wipeout Points to Deeper Turmoil for China EVs.

"A relentless selloff in BYD Co. shares is laying bare investor anxiety over the profit outlook for China's electric-vehicle sector, as cooling demand at home and surging raw material costs trigger a brutal reset of expectations."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-05/byd-s-60-billion-wipeout-points-to-deeper-turmoil-for-china-evs

"Mitsubishi Motors incurs loss in April-December on U.S. tariffs…

"The company's global vehicle sales decreased 6% to 589,000 units. Sales fell 4% in Southeast Asia, its major market, and also decreased in North America and Europe… According to its business results released Thursday, the company posted a net loss of ¥4.49 billion…"

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/02/06/companies/mitsubishi-motors-tariffs-loss/

"Japan's biggest banks ready to increase JGB holdings despite growing losses.

"Japan's two largest banks say they are set to increase their holdings of Japanese government bonds as rising interest rates promise higher returns, even though unrealised losses on existing bond portfolios have grown."

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/japans-biggest-banks-ready-increase-030710555.html

"South Korea stunned by Trump's latest tariff hike.

"South Korea's government appeared to be blindsided last week as Donald Trump accused Seoul of "not living up" to a bilateral trade deal concluded in October, and announced a new 25% tariff on Korean imports."

https://www.dw.com/en/south-korea-stunned-by-trumps-latest-tariff-hike/a-75823025

"Thailand strengthens defences at Ban Nong Ya Kaew [near Cambodia], prepares for future operations.

"On Thursday, Maj Gen Winthai Suvaree, spokesperson for the Royal Thai Army, accompanied local and international media to Ban Nong Ya Kaew in Sa Kaeo Province to observe the aftermath of a military operation aimed at asserting Thailand's territorial sovereignty."

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/general/40062161

"In Afghanistan, a Trail of Hunger and Death Behind U.S. Aid Cuts…

"Historically, Afghanistan has been one of the most aid-dependent nations in the world, with foreign assistance once accounting for nearly 40% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The sudden evaporation of this support has triggered a multifaceted crisis."

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/world/asia/afghanistan-us-aid-cuts.html

"A grim shift: women join suicide attacks in the Balochistan Liberation Army.

"Pakistan (MNN) — On January 31, fighters from the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) coordinated attacks across Pakistan's Balochistan province. Later reports said two of the suicide bombers were women."

https://www.mnnonline.org/news/a-grim-shift-women-join-suicide-attacks-in-the-balochistan-liberation-army/

"US-Iran talks begin in Oman amid deep rifts and mounting war fears.

"While both sides have signaled readiness to revive diplomacy, Washington wants the talks to cover Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, support for proxy terror groups around the region and "treatment of their own people," US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-negotiate-oman-amid-deep-rifts-mounting-war-fears-2026-02-06/

"Tankers Speed Through Hormuz Chokepoint on Rising Iran Tensions…

"Very Large Crude Carriers are traveling around the narrow, congested waterway — through which about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil trade travels — at as much as 17 knots, ship-tracking data show."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-06/tankers-speed-through-hormuz-chokepoint-on-rising-iran-tensions

"'The Kurds had Western support, especially from the US. That support has now been withdrawn'.

"The agreement signed by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa brings an end to the experiment of Rojava, an autonomous region in the northeast of the country. The United States gave its approval for dismantling this Kurdish stronghold and its military wing, both of which it had previously protected…"

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2026/02/06/the-kurds-had-western-support-especially-from-the-us-that-support-has-now-been-withdrawn_6750195_23.html

"The Real Risks of the Saudi-UAE Feud.

"Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are locked in a broader strategic contest, jockeying over economic, political, and security matters. What was once a friendly competition has devolved into rivalry. The root of their crisis lies in Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia's grand plan for its future."

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/real-risks-saudi-uae-feud

"Ethiopia inches ever closer to war.

"The routine is familiar by now. Nervous queues outside banks running rapidly out of cash. Empty shelves, soaring prices, frantic hoarding of food. Over the past year residents of Tigray, Ethiopia's northernmost region, have endured at least three similar episodes, terrified each time that another war would erupt."

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/02/05/ethiopia-inches-ever-closer-to-war

"Famine conditions spread to more towns in Sudan's Darfur, experts warn.

"Acute malnutrition has reached famine levels in two more areas of western Sudan's Darfur region, United Nations-backed experts warn, as a civil war between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army has caused widespread hunger."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/5/famine-conditions-spread-to-more-towns-in-sudans-darfur-experts-warn

"Aid workers missing after airstrikes hit South Sudan hospital…

"The hospital, run by medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) in Jonglei state, "was hit in an air strike by the government of South Sudan forces during the night on Tuesday", MSF said. The South Sudan government is yet to comment."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c20dq9e3qr7o

"'They killed my sons': chief of Nigerian village where jihadists massacred hundreds recounts night of terror…

"The traditional chief of a village in western Nigeria where jihadists massacred residents earlier this week has recounted a night of terror during which the attackers killed two of his sons and kidnapped his wife and three daughters."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/feb/05/nigeria-sends-troops-to-villages-attacked-by-jihadist-fighters

"US, Russia vie for influence in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso…

""We should welcome the fact that America is offering the AES countries, which France and the EU wanted to portray as pariahs, an opportunity for negotiation and discussion," Dr. Gnaka Lagoke, lecturer in history and Pan-African studies at Lincoln University in Pennsylvania, told DW."

https://www.dw.com/en/us-russia-vie-for-influence-in-mali-niger-and-burkina-faso/a-75789462

"Cubans rendered powerless as outages persist and tensions with US escalate.

"The smell of sulfur hits hard in this coastal town that produces petroleum and is home to one of Cuba's largest thermoelectric plants. Yet, even as the plant cranks back to life, residents remain in the dark, surrounded by energy sources they cannot use."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/cuba-santa-cruz-people-donald-trump-venezuela-b2914656.html

"Rising conflict poses economic risks for global defence sector.

"The global defence industry faces structural challenges due to an unexpected surge in demand that could be constrained by economic nationalism, fiscal fragility and supply chain risks, research has warned - with major implications for insurers and lenders."

https://www.theactuary.com/2026/02/05/rising-conflict-poses-economic-risks-global-defence-sector

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You can read the previous "Economic" thread here. I'll be back next week.

The post 6th February 2026 Today's Round-Up of Economic News appeared first on Climate and Economy.

Hawes, North Yorkshire: A stunning ray of sunshine, beamed on to a farmhouse, is a reminder of my family's history in this landscape

It is early Saturday morning and I'm on my way to the Hawes Honeys sale of "in-lamb" (pregnant) ewes at Hawes auction. Usually I drive through Nateby and up over the tops into North Yorkshire, past the big pipe under the road where I used to play with toy cars when I was little, and remembering my sons shouting "hold your breath everyone, don't breathe the Yorkshire air" as we passed the county boundary.

Today I take a different route, turning off at Wharton to go via Mallerstang instead. As I drove into Mallerstang I had to stop the car and watch as a single ray of sunlight broke through, lighting up a white farmhouse on the other side of the valley, opposite Pendragon Castle.

First, let me get this out of the way before anyone calls this post AI slop.

I wrote this entire thing myself. I then fed it to ChatGPT to clean it up. That's it. I didn't feel like putting in the effort to properly punctuate, format, and fix the typos, and to turn my rant into something cohesive instead of one long wall of text. I'm being upfront about my use of AI, so don't come at me for it.

Second, a mini rant about income and property tax. Then I'll explain why I think the American Dream is dead.

I'm 28 years old. I finally hit what's supposed to be a big milestone. I cracked over 100k in gross income.

I live in California. I make around 140k a year gross. After taxes, roughly 33%, I'm left with about 93k net. That's working full time, 80 hours every pay period, bi-weekly.

That means a third of my income just disappears. Most of it is federal taxes at around 24%, plus about 9% for state.

This is why I hate income tax. Like BITCH, WTF do you mean I have to give up a third of my hard-earned money. Hitting six figures is supposed to mean stability, not still feeling squeezed. Even at this income level, I still can't afford my own house yet. I have around 50k in debt that I'm going to pay off first, and then I'll try to save to buy a house.

And then there's property tax. WTF do you mean I have to keep paying you for property I already own. I paid for it. It's mine. That should be the end of it.

I'm not against taxes if they're actually used to make American lives better. Just to name a few things wrong with how our taxes are spent. We spend a ridiculous amount on defense, and God only knows how much of that is actually used for real defense versus shady shit hidden behind that label. We also spend a ton on foreign aid, which I wouldn't even be mad about if it actually went toward things like vaccines, medicine, and basic survival. Instead, corrupt politicians in those countries get fat on it, and the people who need help never see a dime.

This is where the American Dream starts to fall apart.

Capitalism used to reward hard work and long-term thinking. And don't get me wrong I understand that capitalism has always had winners and losers. But now it's far beyond that. It's been twisted and devolved into shit. Mega corporations, monopolies, and oligarchies run everything, and they've forced us into a permanent consumer state. Products are intentionally made with planned obsolescence so nothing lasts. You're forced to keep buying replacements and upgrades because the old stuff is designed to fail. Back in the day, if you bought something, you expected it to last, and if it broke, there were repairmen for everything. That entire system got killed. Now you don't really own quality items unless you can afford insanely expensive, artisan-level shit.

And the biggest thing we should be able to truly own is a place to live.

What's the most important thing for living besides sustenance. It's housing.

Housing is where the American Dream really dies. There was a time when an average person could afford a home and actually have it be theirs. Now housing is so expensive that people spend 30 years paying off a mortgage, busting their ass the whole time, just to finally own it. And even then, you still pay property taxes forever hence my propertytax rant. So do you really ever own it?

Because of this, more and more people are forced to rent. Homeownership keeps getting pushed further and further back, and the average age of first-time homeowners keeps rising.

Another major shift is income. There was a time when one income could realistically support a family. That doesn't mean people shouldn't work or pursue careers, or that you can't have two incomes in a household. It means the economy used to be structured so that a single full-time job could cover housing, food, and basic stability. A second income shouldn't be required just to survive. It should be for things like career growth, fulfillment, or improving quality of life. Now that's impossible. Today, most families require two full-time incomes just to survive, not to thrive. That's not about personal choice, independence, or fulfillment. That's about economic necessity.

The result is a society where everyone is stretched thin, living paycheck to paycheck, constantly consuming, and never getting ahead. Breaking out of that cycle feels almost impossible unless you're extremely lucky or already wealthy. Small business ownership and entrepreneurship, the things that used to drive upward mobility, feel nearly dead.

Another flaw in the system is medicine. Which is something every human needs to survive, yet it's become one of the highest-profit industries in existence. This ties into earlier about my rant on our taxes being misappropriated. The taxes that go to healthcare could be significantly impoved if it wasn't for the pharmaceutical industry. There's nothing wrong with making a profit, but at some point the greed becomes immoral. People die every year because they can't afford medicine that costs a fraction of what it's sold for. That's fucked.

That's why the American Dream is dead. Not because people don't work hard, but because the system no longer rewards it the way it used to.

I'm not ranting just to rant. I did what Im supposed to do. What they tell you to do. I grinded I played by the rules and worked hard to get to where I am today, busting my ass every single officially from the age of 18, but unofficially even before then. And when I finally feel like I should've made it, it turns out the rules are bullshit.

I'll never really achieve true financial freedom. And for those of you who will say I should budget better, cut unnecessary expenses, blah blah, live a basically non-existent and unfulfilled life in order to maybe gain financial freedom decades from now, I'm not interested in that. Life is meant to be enjoyed, not spent scrimping and saving pennies until you're too old to enjoy shit.

And I already live a budgeted lifestyle. I don't take vacations. I don't spend money on stupid shit. I don't eat out multiple times a day. I don't spend money on alcohol or drugs. But it's still not enough.

In my household, we have three people and a combined income of around 200k gross, and it's still not enough. Like come on, man. That's just ridiculous. And it's not that I'm not comfortable. It's not that I don't have comfort or stability but It's the grind that you you have day in and day out until you either away to achieve that comfort and stability. When are you supposed to actually live and enjoy life.

And I'm not ungrateful. I thank God for even giving me the capability to earn and live. I know there are plenty of people less fortunate than me and way bigger problems than the ones I have. But I'm specifically talking about the economic challenges of a middle-class person and how this country has basically made it impossible to actually live and enjoy life without constantly grinding for your finances.

The rich get richer, and the middle and lower classes keep getting shoved further and further down.

This week's best wildlife photographs from around the world

The new Nissan LEAF, the transformed 2026 Nissan LEAF, continues to shine thanks to the wonderful mix of good specs, modern design, and great affordability. It has certainly been one of the top EV highlights of the past year in the United States — probably the greatest — and it ... [continued]

The post New Nissan LEAF Wins 3 More Awards! appeared first on CleanTechnica.

We have been covering NIO for more than 9 years. When it started out as a young, ambitious, small young company, it was clear the EV startup had big dreams. The company wanted to achieve great things and excite the world, as Tesla had done, on the benefits of a ... [continued]

The post NIO Scores A Profit! appeared first on CleanTechnica.

With plans to sell off over a million acres of natural habitat for oil and gas development, the Trump administration is ignoring the dire impact on its fragile ecosystem

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This week, the Trump administration took a key step towards opening new leases for oil and gas drilling across millions of acres in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge - a pristine and biodiverse expanse in northern Alaska and one of the last wildlands in the US still left untouched.

With a call for nominations officially issued on Tuesday, the US Bureau of Land Management began evaluating plots across the 1.5 million-acre Coastal Plain at the heart of the refuge - an area often referred to as the American Serengeti, thanks to its rich tundra ecosystems, which provide habitat for close to 200 species and serve as the traditional homelands of the Iñupiat and Gwichʼin peoples.

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Trump's Greenland threats open old wounds for Inuit across Arctic

'Erasure of years of work': outcry as White House moves to open Arctic reserve to oil and gas drilling

Arctic endured year of record heat as climate scientists warn of 'winter being redefined'

It is a most absurd thing — Republicans who insist that the we should be completely free and that people should be able to spend and try to make money however they wish somehow also decided that major investors cannot be allowed to look at matters of climate change, social ... [continued]

The post Court Says Texas Cannot Punish Investors for Taking Climate Change into Consideration appeared first on CleanTechnica.

"The world could end in the next couple of hours." — General Keeler (as quoted by Annie Jacobson)

Several of you in the Collapse2050 community have suggested Annie Jacobsen's 2024 non-fiction book, Nuclear War: A Scenario.

Jacobsen's book provides minute-by-minute detail of the end of civilization. The book maps out a hypothetical first strike by North Korea against the U.S.

It takes a mere 72 minutes to go from the first launch to a total global thermonuclear exchange. The immediate aftermath triggers a nuclear winter, resulting in an estimated 5 billion deaths.

"It doesn't matter how nuclear war begins... it only ends one way, and that is in nuclear Armageddon."

Given how often it's been recommended here, I figured I'd share the following recent interview of Jacobsen by Hasan Minhaj, released a few days ago:

2030 Doomsday Scenario: The Great Nuclear CollapseA timeline of the end game for human civilizationCollapse 2050Sarah Connor

The unspoken truth about humanity's frightening future.

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Whether you are currently in a stable partnership or searching for a soulmate, you likely view intimacy as a source of emotional satisfaction. In stable, affluent societies, love is influenced by Romanticism, which emphasizes individualism and the pursuit of happiness. It encourages the search for a soulmate.

However, when civilization collapses, this soulmate myth might be self-destructive. The new environment will require bonds based on survival rather than romance. In some situations, love takes on twisted forms, unthinkable to us today.

History shows what this might look like.

The unspoken truth about humanity's frightening future.

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When individuals perceive a resource as rare or at risk, its perceived value increases. History shows fluctuating sex ratios and the immediate threat of struggle or death radically altered the biological market for partners. Also, when potential partners are scarce, individuals become less picky and are more likely to marry young to avoid future insecurity.

Conversely, in stable environments, an abundance of partners leads to higher selectivity and a decrease in the perceived value of any single bond, often resulting in delayed commitment.

In crisis, humans generally respond to the threat of isolation by amplifying positive perceptions of available partners while downplaying their negative traits. This pro-relationship bias gives a psychological buffer against the terror of facing the collapse alone. This explains why many relationships form quickly in environments like the Czestochowa concentration camp; in his memoir The Flower of the Human Heart, Sigi Siegreich recounts meeting Hanka on New Year's Eve in 1944 and marrying her only 17 days later, immediately following liberation.

The stable pairbond was the most common relationship pattern within concentration camps. Unlike romantic partnerships in the free world, prisoners often formed these pairs specifically for mutual survival, creating a unit that could navigate the camp's brutality and bureaucracy. Instead of pairing based on shared interests or physical attraction, partnerships were based on the reciprocal exchange of survival skills.

These bonds differed fundamentally from current expressive intimacy, which prioritizes emotional fulfillment. In a state of total attrition, individuals redefined "attractiveness" as absolute reliability, the certainty that a partner would not steal a shared ration.

While extreme conditions often shut down libido and dopamine-driven lust, the neurochemistry of bonding remained tied to the release of oxytocin. As documented in the "tend-and-befriend" research by Shelley Taylor, this attachment hormone facilitated the deep, platonic foxhole loyalty required to lower stress levels and allow for communal rest amidst constant threat.

Secondarily, these pairbonds provided a semblance of humanity amidst total dehumanization. When the camp transferred or killed one partner, a replacement often soon followed, as the survival costs of being a loner were high. Even survivors who claimed they survived independently were often aided by someone who cared for them as much as for themselves.

Combinations often expanded beyond the pair bond. As nuclear family structures disintegrated under the pressure of war and genocide, humans instinctively organized into survival clans or pseudo-families. These groups often included unrelated people.

In her memoir Return to Auschwitz, survivor Kitty Hart noted that "alone one could not possibly survive", which led to the formation of "little families of two or three." These groups performed several critical functions. Members often adopted the roles of lost parents or siblings. Older prisoners might mentor younger ones, while younger prisoners provided the physical vigor needed to assist their substitute elders.

The group served as a vessel for collective hope. Groups also allowed for specialized labor, based on skills or shifts. These groups rarely functioned as polyamorous romantic units. Instead, members modeled their bonds on traditional familial hierarchies to ensure maximum stability and avoid the complexities of multi-partner sexual dynamics during a crisis.

This phenomenon was not unique to the Holocaust. During the Khmer Rouge regime in Cambodia, friends formed pseudo-families where each member was prepared to give their life for the others. Similarly, in the wake of the Somali state's collapse, clan loyalties surged dramatically as traditional lineages offered the only haven for security and resource distribution.

Throughout history, the clan is a central pillar of survival.

While the stable pair and the survival clan are resilient, beyond a point even these break down. The 872-day Siege of Leningrad and the 1932-1933 Holodomor in Ukraine show how extreme starvation can destroy intra-family bonds.

During the Siege of Leningrad, a "starvation policy" claimed nearly one million lives. The daily bread ration was only 125 grams for non-essential workers, providing roughly 300 to 500 calories of largely indigestible filler. The physical and psychological toll was catastrophic. In her study The War Within: Diaries from the Siege of Leningrad, Alexis Peri analyzes personal diaries from the period which reveal that "romantic desire withered" as the body focused entirely on biological maintenance.

The physical deterioration was so extreme that 17-year-old Elena Mukhina looked in the mirror and saw "an old man" looking back at her, as starving children had teeth fell out. Family dynamics underwent a radical reversal. Children took on adult responsibilities, becoming caregivers for their weakening parents and effectively skipping the developmental stage of childhood to become tiny old men and women. In many instances, the desperation for rations became so severe that family members turned on one another, stealing bread from their own kin to stave off death for a few more hours.

Arguably, the Holodomor provides the most harrowing example of family collapse. The man-made famine induced rare social anomalies. In her comprehensive history Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine, Anne Applebaum documents cases of mothers killing and eating their own children. In Zaporizhzhia, Kharytyna Nyshchenko strangled her two young children due to "prolonged exhaustion" and "clouding of consciousness." Peasants often abandoned their children in urban centers, hoping the state would save them, only for the state to unload them out in the open country where they died of exposure. Soviet propaganda also actively destroyed the parent-child bond by encouraging children to report on their parents for hiding wheat, pitting parent against child.

These cases suggest that while love can act as a survival strategy, the fundamental drive for self-preservation can ultimately override this as collapse deepens.

During war, famine or collapse, love becomes warped and sex is often systematically weaponized. The Nazi camp system designed the registration of prisoners as a ritual of sexual humiliation. Officials stripped, shaved, and subjected prisoners to invasive physical examinations. SS officials delighted in these procedures, using rods to check for virginity or performing examinations to assert total dominion over the prisoner's body. This established a camp value system where sexual modesty was erased and the body became an object of the state.

Within the camps, a hierarchy of camp aristocrats emerged, men who worked as organizers with access to the black market. These men often used their status to solicit sexual favors from female prisoners. Examples from survivor memoirs illustrate the grim reality of these transactions.

In her memoir I Was a Doctor in Auschwitz, Dr. Gisella Perl recounted asking a Polish worker in a women's camp latrine for string in exchange for bread. The man refused the food, instead rudely demanding sexual favors while his hands were "filthy from his work".

In Five Chimneys: A Woman Who Survived Auschwitz, Olga Lengyel initially appreciated the "human-sounding voice" of a man named Tadek who repaired beds in her barrack. However, after giving her a potato and a shawl, he began fondling her, revealing that his "gifts" were merely a down payment for sexual access.

Following liberation, society rarely stigmatized men who visited camp brothels or engaged in sexual relationships, whereas women who engaged in "sex for survival" were often branded as prostitutes and ostracized. In occupied territories like France, horizontal collaboration (romantic or sexual relationships with German soldiers) became a common phenomenon. Following liberation, these women faced brutal recriminations. Vigilantes publicly humiliated approximately 20,000 shaven women (femmes tondues) as a way for French men to reclaim their masculinity from the memory of the German occupation. These relationships produced an estimated 200,000 occupation babies, whom the public considered a betrayal and also exiled or stigmatized after the war.

During most catastrophic situations there exists a power imbalance between classes of people. Those with power will hoard resources while most go without. To cross this bridge, sex and intimacy can become a currency of exchange. Sexual barter can be via an explicit arrangement or manipulation. Often these relationships morph into something somewhat real, where purpose is masked by a sheer veneer of romance.

One of the most complex psychological phenomena in collapsing civilizations is the formation of emotional links between the victim and the victimizer, driven by a more diverse range of motivations, from strategic survival to genuine affection.

Stockholm Syndrome describes a psychological response wherein a captive begins to identify with and empathize with their captor. A captor often initiates the bond by threatening a victim's life and then choosing not to kill them, causing the victim's terror to transpose into intense gratitude for being "given life". Over time, victims in enforced dependence begin to interpret rare acts of kindness, such as being offered food or permitted to talk, as evidence of the captor's humanity or benevolence.

Experts often draw the distinction between Stockholm Syndrome and "trauma bonding" based on reciprocity. While trauma bonding is a one-way response to cycles of abuse and kindness, Stockholm Syndrome involves a mutual empathy. This mechanism essentially serves as a survival strategy. By aligning with the captor's goals and believing in their goodness, the victim may secure their safety in a world where the captor is in complete control.

In Auschwitz, Helena Citronova and SS Lance Corporal Franz Wunsch developed a relationship that saved the life of Helena's sister, Rozinka. Wunsch obsessed over Helena, keeping a photograph of her in her striped uniform and cutting out her face to place it in other, safer photographs. Helena later admitted that, although she initially hated him, "in the end, I loved him" because he intervened to save her sister.

With sexual relationships comes conception, often unplanned. Biological urges persist, despite the irrationality of child rearing in a hostile environment. However, the reality of collapse radically alters the nature of infant care and the decisions surrounding it. Mothers in crisis environments may revert to any means to keep infants alive. As Iris HeavyRunner and Joann Sebastian Morris documented in their research on traditional resilience, Indigenous grandmothers recount stories of surviving hard times by feeding infants rabbit brains, caribou broth, moose broth, and boiled rice water. Elders often framed these practices through a lens of resiliency, with one stating that infants fed animal brains grew up strong and tough.

During the Holodomor, hunger often forced mothers to make critical choices about which child to feed or whether to abandon an infant. During the 19th-century population crises in Russia, foundling homes in St. Petersburg and Moscow received tens of thousands of children annually. These institutions utilized "turning cradles," allowing mothers to deposit infants unseen to protect their identity.

As David Kertzer documents in Sacrificed for Honor: Italian Infant Abandonment and the Politics of Reproductive Control, this crisis echoed historical patterns such as in pre-industrial Italy. Before the institutionalization of the ruota degli esposti (foundling wheel), desperate parents, driven by both extreme poverty and the paralyzing social stigma of being unwed, frequently discarded infants in gutters or on the streets, leaving their survival to pure chance or the pity of strangers.

While the pair and clan act as primary buffers against death, a significant portion of the population during a collapse finds itself involuntarily alone. These individuals often experience the highest mortality rates and the most rapid psychological decline. Without a witness to their existence or a partner to share the logistical burden of survival, the loner is vulnerable to chronic stress, poor resource access, weak defence, and eventual exhaustion.

In the the concentration camp, the "Muselmann", the prisoner who had surrendered to apathy and was marked for death, was often someone who had lost their primary bond or failed to integrate into a pseudo-family. Without the social pressure to wash, eat, or stay upright, the individual faded.

Viktor Frankl observed that those who found themselves without a social connection or a future-oriented goal involving another person were the first to succumb to typhus or starvation.

Another subset of individuals chooses solitude as a deliberate survival strategy. They often view other humans as liabilities or potential threats. In the early stages of a collapse, where social cohesion is replaced by predatory behavior, choosing to be alone can increase survival odds by reducing exposure to violence and betrayal.

The daily life of the strategic recluse is stealthy. They avoid the visibility required to maintain a clan, preferring to hide resources rather than share them. This strategy, however, leaves them vulnerable to minor injuries or illnesses that would be survivable with even basic communal care.

As documented by survivor Selco Begovic in his accounts of the Siege of Sarajevo, those who survived longest in total isolation often possessed high levels of pre-existing technical self-sufficiency. However, even these individuals reported a cost to their choice. Begovic describes a man who hid in his apartment for months, avoiding all human contact; while he survived the physical violence of the streets, he emerged with profound social atrophy, having lost the ability to read facial expressions or trust verbal cues.

Love today is already changing. Young couples aren't having kids, knowing that famine and war await. The American dream is no longer attainable, so the nuclear family is already dying. Many are simply opting out.

That doesn't mean love won't exist. Instead, the lessons of the past show us the persistence of physical and emotional bonding as a survival strategy.

Love won't disappear, but it won't look like it does today.

I hope you can find what you need.

Thank you for reading. My name is Sarah and I run Collapse2050 by myself. It is a place for the collapse-aware community to learn, debate and connect. Please consider subscribing. The site is free for all, but paid subscribers and one-time contributors help to cover hosting and production costs. Thank you. Sarah

The Doomsday Clock is a globally recognized symbol indicating how vulnerable our world is to a global catastrophe caused by technologies humans created. Set every year by the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, it uses midnight to represent a potential global apocalypse.

Today, the world is closer to disaster than at any point in its history, with the clock now standing at 85 seconds to midnight.

This position reflects a total breakdown in international cooperation and a dangerous rise in aggressive nationalism among world powers. The Bulletin warns that the current global trajectory is unsustainable, as leaders have grown complacent while adopting policies that accelerate rather than mitigate existential risks.

The Science and Security Board moved the hands forward because of an intensification of several negative trends over the past year:

• Aggressive Geopolitics: Russia, China, and the United States have moved away from diplomacy toward a winner-takes-all great power competition. At the same time, the sophistication of large language models is being used to supercharge disinformation campaigns, undermining the fact-based discussions necessary to address global crises.
• Nuclear Brinkmanship: A full-blown arms race is currently underway as major powers modernize their delivery systems and increase their nuclear warhead counts. This is further aggravated by the development of the Golden Dome space-based missile defense system, which increases the probability of conflict in space. Three regional conflicts involving nuclear-armed states—the Russia-Ukraine war, tensions between India and Pakistan, and attacks involving Israel, the U.S., and Iran—all threatened to escalate in 2025. Additionally, there is a growing concern regarding the potential incorporation of AI into nuclear command and control decision-support systems.
• Treaty Collapses: The expiration of New START marks the end of nearly 60 years of efforts to limit strategic nuclear weapons between the world's two largest nuclear powers.
• Climate Hostility: Atmospheric carbon dioxide has reached 150 percent of preindustrial levels, and global average sea levels have hit record highs. National responses have shifted from being merely insufficient to profoundly destructive, with recent UN summits failing to prioritize the phasing out of fossil fuels. The U.S. administration has effectively declared war on renewable energy and has halted the collection of vital climate data.
• Biological Risks: The rapid evolution of AI is creating a new biological threat. These tools now allow for the AI-aided design of novel pathogens to which humans have no effective defenses. The potential laboratory synthesis of self-replicating organisms known as mirror life has emerged as a new existential threat to the planet's ecosystems.

Today's setting of 85 seconds is the most dangerous point in the history of the Clock.

In 1953, the Clock was set at 2 minutes to midnight after the United States and the Soviet Union tested their first thermonuclear weapons. The safest period in the Clock's history was in 1991, following the end of the Cold War, when it was moved back to 17 minutes to midnight as major powers made deep cuts to their nuclear arsenals.

Since 2023, the Clock has remained consistently at 90 seconds or less, reflecting a new abnormal that is extremely dangerous and unsustainable.

Read the full statement:

Watch the full presentation:

Our Fascist FutureFascism is once again rising around the world. The environment is ripe for strongmen and dictators to consolidate power over the masses. Yet, while many see what is unfolding and are aware of the dangers, as a society we are choosing fascism.Collapse 2050Sarah Connor

The Future of American FascismWhat will it look like?Collapse 2050Sarah Connor

Are we just letting this happen again?Fascism's point of no returnCollapse 2050Sarah Connor

Peak Oil. Food. Fascism. Collapse.The era of abundant oil, resources and food is coming to an end, and with it, the world as we know it will change dramatically.Collapse 2050Sarah Connor

Life in a DictatorshipWhat to expect. How to survive.Collapse 2050Sarah Connor

What Happens When No One Stands?An excerpt from "They Thought They Were Free: The Germans, 1933-1945"Collapse 2050Sarah Connor

Why Dictators FailFirst the allure, then the collapseCollapse 2050Sarah Connor

I recently did a Q&A with author Scott Erickson about his book "Laughing at Our Self Destruction". Previously, his book was only available on Amazon. Many readers expressed desire to buy his book without supporting Amazon. The book is now available on Bookshop.org.

Original interview:

"Laughing at our self destruction"Q&A with author Scott EricksonCollapse 2050Sarah Connor

The unspoken truth about humanity's frightening future.

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Between the threat of martial law and current snowstorms, the social contract and infrastructure is unreliable. The slightest disruption puts you at risk. We must all become more self-reliant.

I'm not talking about prepping for the collapse - save that for another day. Right now, let's focus on getting through a week of snow or lockdowns. Start by building a base of stability that'll get you through a power outage or empty store shelves.

This is a short-term guide for a one-week isolation. It is meant to keep you alive until conditions improve.

Here's what you need:

One gallon per person, per day. For one week, you need 7 gallons per person. When the grid fails or pipes freeze, water stops flowing. You need water for hydration, hygiene, and to prepare food.

The cost is approximately $25-$40 for bottled water and storage containers. It is $0 if you fill your own containers. No special skills are required. If you can anticipate the disruption, fill your bathtub and every pitcher you own before the storm.

Stock food that requires no cooking. Aim for 2,000 calories per day per person. For one week, for one person you could buy:

• 1 large jar of peanut butter.
• 10 cans of protein (beans, tuna, or chicken).
• 2 large bags of mixed nuts.
• 2 bags of dried fruit.
• 1 box of granola or protein bars.
• 1 bottle of olive oil (add a tablespoon to canned food for easy, dense calories).

In a lockdown, hunger causes panic. If gas or electricity fails, you cannot cook. You need energy to maintain body temperature in the cold. With current food inflation, the cost is roughly $80-$120 per person for the week. No special skills are needed; just buy what you will eat.

Use a "warm room" strategy. Have 1 sub-zero sleeping bag per person or 3-4 heavy wool blankets.

If the furnace stops, your home will get cold. You cannot heat a whole house without power. Pick one room, seal the windows with plastic or curtains, and stay there. Wool keeps you warm even if it gets wet. The cost for quality insulation gear is now $150-$300 per person. Hang blankets over doors to keep heat in.

To generate heat safely without a furnace, use chemical hand and toe warmers, or fill a sturdy bottle with hot water (if you have a way to heat it) and place it at the foot of your sleeping bag. Body heat is your most reliable resource; huddling together with family or pets significantly raises the temperature inside a confined space or tent.

Do not use a generator or outdoor grill inside the house. They produce carbon monoxide, which is odorless and lethal. Never use candles or open flames for heat; in a cold, dry room with blankets, the fire risk is too high. If you must use a portable heater, ensure it is rated for indoor use and that you have a battery-powered carbon monoxide detector in the room.

Use hands-free LED lighting. Have 1 LED headlamp per person and 8 spare batteries (AA or AAA).

Darkness causes accidents. A headlamp keeps your hands free to work or fix problems. Candles are a fire risk when emergency services cannot reach you. The cost is $30-$60 for reliable lights and lithium batteries. Practice battery management by using light only when you must.

Maintain redundant information sources. Have 1 multi-power emergency radio (NOAA/AM/FM) and 1 large power bank (at least 10,000 mAh) or a portable solar charger.

You need information to know if orders have changed. When the internet fails, a radio is your only link to news. A power bank is best for immediate use, while a solar charger is useful if the skies are clear. To get both a reliable radio ($40-$70) and a high-capacity power bank ($30-$60), the total cost is $80-$150. You should know how to find local emergency frequencies and how to position a solar panel for maximum sun exposure.

Maintain your medical needs and waste management. Have 30 days of medications and 1 standard first-aid kit.

Include 1 roll of heavy-duty trash bags and a bag of kitty litter or sawdust. If pipes freeze or the water is cut, do not flush the toilet. Line the bowl with a bag and use the litter to manage waste and odor. This prevents disease and structural damage.

During a lockdown, a small infection or a missed pill becomes a crisis. You must manage your health when roads are blocked. The cost is $60-$100 for basic supplies and kit restocking. You should know basic first aid, such as how to stop bleeding or manage a fever.

Isolation and darkness break the spirit. Have 1 physical book, a deck of cards, or a notebook.

Panic is as dangerous as the cold. Low-tech entertainment keeps your mind occupied and prevents the psychological decay that comes with total isolation. The cost is $10-$25. No skills are required beyond the discipline to stay calm.

You can do this in an afternoon. One trip to the store is enough. You must act before a lockdown begins. Once it is announced, stores will be empty.

The cost of survival for one person is around $450 to $900. Unfortunately, safety is a luxury that many cannot afford. One step at a time. Start with water.

Of course, this is a temporary fix. This plan lasts for one week. It does not fix crumbling infrastructure, decline into fascism, or breadbasket failure. This is about making it to next Monday.

Stay safe. Stay hydrated. Stay sane.

In the world of finance and insurance, actuaries are pragmatists. They are highly trained professionals who analyze data, probability distributions, and long-term solvency. Their job is to look at the range of realities and calculate how much it will cost when things go wrong. Actuaries are probably one of the only groups of people embedded within the corporate world that are least tainted by optimism bias, politics, and shareholder demands.

A group of actuaries recently released a report on the fate of human survival called "Parasol Lost".

The report was produced by a collaboration between the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the University of Exeter. Led by authors including Sandy Trust, Oliver Bettis, James Orr, and Professor Sir David King (former Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government), the team brings together experts in climate science and risk management.

The unspoken truth about humanity's frightening future.

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Sulphate aerosols from fossil fuel burning have acted as a hidden sunshade, reflecting sunlight and cooling the Earth by roughly 0.5°C. As we clean up air pollution, we lose that cooling. This unmasking is contributing to a termination shock—a rapid, violent spike in warming that we are already starting to feel.

Traditional economic models have often treated climate change as a manageable speed bump. The actuaries disagree, using reverse stress testing (a technique used to see what would ruin a bank or insurance company) to look at the real impact.

Unmitigated climate change could lead to a 50% drop in global GDP later this century. The higher the temperature anomaly, the closer we get to complete collapse.

A plausible scenario could cause a 15% to 20% global GDP contraction in just a five-year period—an economic shock far greater than the Great Depression or the 2008 Financial Crisis.

The report defines Planetary Insolvency as significant societal disruption driven by climate and nature risks. The decadal warming average is already at 1.4°C. At current rates, we are likely to hit 2°C mark before 2050. Once we pass 1.5°C, we enter the danger zone for irreversible tipping points, including the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet and the dieback of the Amazon rainforest.

The Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) has doubled in recent decades. In early 2023, the rate of solar energy absorption was equivalent to every person alive on Earth continuously boiling 60 kettles. Since 1971, the Earth has accumulated 500 times more energy than the world's total primary energy consumption in 2024. 93% of this heat is currently being stored in the oceans, a thermal debt that will eventually be paid.

Beyond economic figures, the report warns of a severe humanitarian crisis. Unchecked climate change is expected to lead to mass mortality events and involuntary mass migration as populations are displaced by rising sea levels, heat stress, and the collapse of food and water systems. This is identified as a national security issue where the foundational stability of political systems is threatened by cascading failures in essential services.

Insurance is the invisible lubricant of the global economy. Without it, you can't get a mortgage, start a business, or ship goods. Insured losses from natural catastrophes have nearly doubled in the last decade, from $77 billion in 2015 to $145 billion in 2024. These losses are currently doubling every 10 to 15 years. The report warns we are approaching a point where large swaths of the planet become simply uninsurable, leading to a total collapse of local economies. Insurance is the canary in the coalmine.

I won't waste your time adding in the usual "but here's what we can do" stuff that is obligatory for these kinds of reports. Still, it's worth the read.

The site is free for all. No ads or corporate sponsors. Paid subscribers and one-time contributors help keep the site going. So do your kind words and comments. Thank you. Sarah.

Until last week, the notion of the United States Marines storming the beaches of Nuuk seemed the stuff of bad Tom Clancy fan fiction.

Then came the Caracas raid.

The extraction of Nicolas Maduro by American special forces, an operation Washington hailed as a masterstroke against tyranny and everyone else decried as piracy, has recalibrated the global sense of the possible. If a sovereign head of state can be snatched from his palace in the tropics, a sparsely populated island in the Arctic hardly seems out of bounds.

Donald Trump has never made secret his desire to acquire Greenland. Having been rebuffed by Denmark during his first term, he now appears ready to dispense with the asking. The island is a treasure chest of dysprosium and neodymium, rare-earth elements essential for everything from iPhones to F-35s, and currently monopolized by China. It also sits atop the "GIUK gap", the naval choke-point through which Russian submarines must pass to threaten the Atlantic if a war with the West were to ever occur.

But for military planners in Washington, the Greenland operation is about more than just rare earths. As the Arctic melts, new shipping lanes are opening that offer Russia and China unpoliced backdoors into the Western Hemisphere, exposing North America to strategic vulnerabilities. In this context, the push north is the act of an empire scrambling to maintain its grip on hegemony.

For some, the operation also quietly represents a two-for-one gain. By provoking a crisis in the High North to maintain control over the GIUK gap and new arctic routes, the United States creates a dilemma that Ottawa cannot solve, turning Canada from a neighbouring ally into a vassal US state.

In Europe, the diplomatic mood is sour. Copenhagen has instructed its troops in Greenland to "shoot first and ask questions later" should American boots touch the ground. European allies, terrified of abandoning a NATO member but terrified equally of fighting the United States, have pledged a tripwire force of French and German troops to the island.

A clash over Greenland might remain a localized skirmish or cascade into a global conflagration. Such is the inherent unpredictability of war.

This puts Canada in an impossible position. Denmark is a NATO ally. If it invokes Article 5, Canada is treaty-bound to come to its aid. Yet Canada is geographically fused to the aggressor. If Ottawa honours its NATO obligations, it effectively declares war on the superpower next door. This is a suicidal gesture for a country whose military is chronically underfunded and whose population is clustered within a hundred miles of the American border.

If Canada refuses to honour its NATO obligations, declaring neutrality, it falls into another trap. Under the Hague Convention, a neutral state must prevent belligerents from using its territory. Realistically, Canada cannot do this and would be deemed unable or unwilling to enforce its neutrality. Canada would be at the mercy of American military strategy.

Either through force or cooperation, the US needs access to Canada to support any prolonged incursion into Greenland. To project power into Greenland effectively, the US Air Force needs to fly directly over Canada. Canada lacks the interceptors, surface-to-air missiles, or radar density to stop advanced American aircraft. Canada literally cannot close its own sky. Sustaining a war also requires massive logistics—fuel, munitions, staging grounds. The most efficient routes to the high north utilize Canadian rail, roads, and airbases (like CFB Goose Bay). Without Canadian cooperation, the US supply chain is stretched thin over open ocean; with forced cooperation, Canada becomes a forward operating base.

This becomes a precursor to annexation. Canada, trying to stay out of a war between NATO allies (US vs. Denmark), could refuse access to maintain neutrality. The US, deeming the Greenland mission critical to national security, ignores the refusal and uses Canadian airspace anyway. Once the US is actively ignoring Canadian sovereignty to move troops, it effectively controls the territory.

To secure these supply lines permanently against interference, Washington might decide it's safer to formalize that control, either by installing a compliant government or legally integrating the territory under defense acts. This effectively ends Canada as an independent sovereign entity.

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Should Canada be designated a hostile entity the consequences would be immediate. The assets of Canadian banks in the United States could be frozen. Snowbirds in Florida might find their condos locked and their bank accounts inaccessible. The Canadian dollar and Canadian assets could collapse, wiping out savings and pensions, and raising the cost of living. An envelope of financial, legal, military aggression would rapidly squeeze the life out of Canada.

The timing is auspicious for Washington. Canada is currently politically brittle. The re-election of Trump has emboldened separatist movements that had been dormant. In Alberta, frustration with the federal Liberal government's policies and perceived hostility to the oil industry has boiled into a passionate conversation about separation. 

The White House knows this. A two-for-one strategy would likely involve a side deal for Alberta: support the American play (or at least stay out of it), and face no tariffs, gain a new pipeline, and enjoy the protection of the American security umbrella. It is a seductive offer for a province that feels underappreciated by the rest of Canada.

Meanwhile, Quebec has long teased separation, a sentiment that could easily be re-inflamed. The province controls the St. Lawrence Seaway, the industrial artery of the continent. A deal that recognizes Quebec's distinct sovereign status in exchange for American military rights over the seaway would neuter Ottawa's control over its own economy.

Canada would be hollowed out, leaving a rump state of coastal provinces and Ontario, separated by large landmasses. This is both economically and politically unviable, with each remaining scrap of the country either allying with the US or forming it's own distinct country. 

We don't know the precise outcome of the Whitehouse's desire to aquire Greenland. Perhaps its all bark and no bite.

But what was once unthinkable is now possible, so we must look at all hypotheticals. As of today, there is a possibility Canada ceases to exist and North America effectively becomes a US fortress.

Greenland is Canada's problem. 

Thanks for reading. My name is Sarah and I run Collapse2050. It is a place for the collapse-aware community to learn, debate and connect. Please consider subscribing.

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How do ordinary people rationalize the unthinkable? As authoritarianism knocks on the door of American democracy, the history of the Third Reich offers a haunting reflection not of monsters, but of ourselves.

It begins with a feeling of unease. A scroll through a newsfeed, a clip of a rally where the rhetoric feels sharper, the threats more explicit. Until the spear of fascism is pointed at your neck.

We aren't letting this happen again, are we?

For many Americans, the escalating political volatility of the last few years has moved the history of the 1930s from the dusty shelves of academic abstraction into the urgent territory of a survival guide. We watch the polarization, the scapegoating of minorities, and the testing of institutional guardrails, and we ask the inevitable question: Is this how it happens?

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But the more haunting question is about those going along, and the millions staying quiet at home.

For decades we've comforted ourselves with the idea that the German people of 1933 were uniquely susceptible to hateful fascism. Brainwashed. Uninformed. Evil. We imagine that we would be different...that we would speak up, that we would resist.

Yet, Third Reich shows that the rise of fascism relies less on a nation of monsters and more on a nation of neighbors. It was built on the banal, terrifying architecture of social conformity, professional ambition, and the human need to belong. To understand how a modern democracy collapses, we must look away from Hitler and toward the ordinary citizen navigating the gray zone between complicity and survival.

If you were a "pure" German in 1933, the onset of the dictatorship might have felt like the lights coming back on. After the humiliation of World War I and the crushing poverty of the Great Depression, the Nazis promised a return to order and the Volksgemeinschaft ("People's Community").

This was the regime's most potent psychological weapon. It offered a seductive bargain: equality, status, and belonging for the "in-group," purchased at the price of the "out-group's" exclusion. Participation was made to feel like a festival. The Winter Relief drives and the Strength Through Joy vacations were communal. They made the average citizen feel seen and valued.

But this belonging was brittle. It required constant maintenance through what sociologists call "ritualistic conformity." The "Heil Hitler" greeting was a social signal. To refuse it was to mark oneself as difficult, a grumbler, an outsider. Most people performed the salute because it was awkward not to. They did it to avoid the friction of social deviance. Over time, however, a psychological mechanism known as cognitive dissonance took hold. It is exhausting to act one way and believe another. Eventually, many aligned their internal beliefs with their external actions. They became what they pretended to be.

The most chilling dismantling of the "monster" myth comes from a study of Reserve Police Battalion 101. This group was made up of middle-aged, working-class family men from Hamburg, too old for the front lines. In 1942, they were ordered to round up and execute the Jewish inhabitants of the Polish village of Józefów.

Their commander, Major Trapp, weeping and visibly shaken, made an extraordinary offer: any man who did not feel up to the task could step out of line and be assigned other duties. There would be no punishment.

Out of 500 men, only about a dozen stepped forward.

Why? They weren't all driven by a bloodthirsty antisemitism, though that was part of the cultural air they breathed. They were driven by the fear of looking weak in front of their friends. They didn't want to leave the "dirty work" to their comrades. They killed out of social deference and peer pressure. The same mundane social glues that keep a high school clique together.

This dynamic appeared even in the highest echelons of society. German doctors performed a psychological process called "doubling." An Auschwitz doctor could supervise the gas chambers by day, selecting thousands for death, and then return home to be a loving father and husband by night. He partitioned his soul, creating an "Auschwitz Self" to handle the horror, keeping his "Prior Self" unpolluted. It was a functional adaptation to evil.

For the millions who were neither killers nor true believers, the primary coping mechanism was Inner Emigration. This was the retreat into the private sphere. You stopped reading the papers. You focused on your garden, your music, your children. You told yourself that by not participating in the worst excesses, you were remaining decent.

The diaries of Victor Klemperer, a Jewish professor in Dresden, document how this silence felt from the other side. He recorded the "mosquito bites" of tyranny and the slow accumulation of indignities. A colleague crossing the street to avoid saying hello. The grocer who apologetically refused to sell him an apple. Fascism didn't require fanatics. Rather, it just needed the population to keep quiet, either through fear or complacency.

For those afraid the terror was real, but it was often self-inflicted. We often imagine the Gestapo as an omniscient surveillance state, but it was surprisingly understaffed and overworked. It relied almost entirely on rats. A neighbor settling a grudge over a shared laundry room, or a colleague eyeing a promotion. The regime weaponized petty envy. It turned the "community" into a panopticon where no one could trust anyone, enforcing a "spiral of silence" where dissent felt dangerous and singular, as if you were the only one who felt that way.

Perhaps the most insidious victory of the regime was its invasion of the family. Through the Hitler Youth, the state offered children power, a rare commodity for the young. It gave them uniforms, purpose, and authority over their parents.

The presence of indoctrinated children blocked the free-flow of communication even within the family home. Parents fell silent at the dinner table, afraid that a grumble about food rationing would be repeated by their son at a Hitler Youth meeting, leading to a knock on the door. Worse, some feared their children would purposefully sell them out. The family was no longer a fortress of truth against the state. Without that, bemoaning of circumstances gradually extinguished.

Looking back from the ruins of 1945, it seems so. But history is a series of choices, and there was a moment when the machine could have been stopped.

Consider the Kapp Putsch of 1920. When a right-wing faction tried to overthrow the Weimar government, the response was swift and unified. The trade unions called a general strike. Berlin stopped. Trains didn't run, water stopped flowing, bureaucrats refused to sign papers. The coup collapsed in days because the ordinary machinery of society refused to cooperate.

In January 1933, Hitler is appointed Chancellor. What if the unions had called a general strike then? By then, however, the voice of the opposition was fatally fractured. The Communists and Social Democrats hated each other more than they feared Hitler. With mass unemployment, workers were terrified of losing their jobs. The psychological moment for collective action had passed.

Also consider the Rosenstrasse Protest of 1943. In the depths of the war, the Gestapo rounded up nearly 2,000 Jewish men who were married to non-Jewish German women. These women marched to the detention center on Rosenstrasse and screamed for their husbands. They refused to leave, even when threatened with machine guns.

And they won. Goebbels, fearing public unrest in the capital, ordered the men released.

Leopold Gutterer, who was Goebbels's deputy at the Propaganda Ministry, later stated in an interview:

"Goebbels released the Jews in order to eliminate that protest from the world. That was the simplest solution: to eradicate completely the reason for the protest. Then it wouldn't make any sense to protest anymore. So that others didn't take a lesson [from the protest], so others didn't begin to do the same, the reason [for the protest] had to be eliminated. There was unrest, and it could have spread from neighborhood to neighborhood ... Why should Goebbels have had them [the protestors] all arrested? Then he would have only had even more unrest, from the relatives of these newly arrested persons." Gutterer also stated: "That [protest] was only possible in a large city, where people lived together, whether Jewish or not. In Berlin were also representatives of the international press, who immediately grabbed hold of something like this, to loudly proclaim it. Thus news of the protest would travel from one person to the next."

It was a demonstration that the regime was not impervious to public pressure, especially from "Aryans." It suggests that the point of no return was further away than we think. Perhaps peaceful, coordinated resistance could have jammed the gears of the Holocaust, had it happened earlier, and on a larger scale.

The tragedy of the Third Reich is that it could have been prevented if it was resisted early enough. Instead, ordinary people did nothing, or did just enough to get by, until the cost of resistance became fatal and complicity was the safest option.

The point of no return was the moment when the fear of social isolation outweighed the moral imperative to speak. It was the moment when the professional civil service decided that swearing an oath to Hitler was preferable to losing a pension. It was the moment when neighbors decided that the apartment of the deported Jewish family was an opportunity to steal their goods, space, job.

As we wonder why fascism is rising once again, the lesson from Germany is that we should look at the mirror. Authoritarian tendencies exist in any society that values order over justice, and comfort over courage. Occasionally socioeconomic circumstances deteriorate to a point at which these tendencies explode. We are not there yet, as we can see from the massive protests in Minneapolis. Resistance is still an option. A must. But it has a shelf life. It works when the press is still free, when the courts are still independent, and when the unions can still stop the trains.

Once those firewalls burn down, the cost of saying "no" rises from social awkwardness to physical destruction. That day is may come soon, unless we persist.

We'll know all is lost when people stop talking.

The transition from peace to a state of war in the year 2026 results from the failure of deterrence and the convergence of systemic crises.

Early on January 3, 2026, United States forces executed a high-stakes strike on Caracas, successfully capturing the Venezuelan president in an operation now known as Operation Southern Spear. While Washington frames this intervention as a necessary response to rampant drug trafficking and regional instability, the reality is far more transactional: this is an aggressive bid to secure the world's largest oil reserves and reshape global energy flows.

This strike extends a violent reorganization of the global order. By seizing control of Venezuelan energy, the US administration intends to grant Western oil companies direct access to reserves, effectively insulating the West from volatile Eastern markets. It is a bold, perhaps desperate, move to secure resource sovereignty in an era defined by a worldwide poly-crisis.

The fallout was immediate. For Russia and China, Venezuela is a strategic foothold in the Western Hemisphere. China, which relies on Venezuelan crude for a significant portion of its imports, now faces what Beijing termed a sovereign default by force.

Removing the leadership in Caracas threatens years of investment and billions in outstanding loans. Russia and China now face a stark choice: accept the loss of influence or respond in theaters where the US is overextended. We are entering a phase of asymmetric debt recovery, where Moscow and Beijing will seek compensation through territorial and economic aggression elsewhere.

The strike has shattered the illusion of strategic ambiguity. In a world of interconnected dependencies, the Caracas catalyst could force a rigid "bloc-logic" back onto the map. Moscow and Beijing, once wary partners, now stand side by side. For every dollar of Venezuelan asset frozen by Washington, Beijing and Moscow could synchronize their military posture, effectively forcing every middle power, from Brazil to Turkey, to choose a side.

As the US commits its carrier groups to the Caribbean and its logistics to a South American occupation, the global "deterrence shield" thins. This provides a window of opportunity for regional powers to settle old scores under the cover of a great power distraction.

In South Asia, the most dangerous of these opportunistic flashpoints has simmered for years. New Delhi, sensing Beijing's preoccupation and the potential for a Pacific front, might strike while the iron is hot. The objective is the pre-emptive securing of the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) headwaters.

In a world where oil is being seized by the West, India views water as its existential red line. If China is perceived as weakened or distracted by the American gambit in Caracas, India may move to seize control of the Tibetan hydrological infrastructure. This "Water War" could extend into multi-front continental conflict, and is just one of many examples of potential knock-on effects of a conflict between China, Russia and US.

As the US pivots its focus toward Venezuela, the architecture of deterrence in Europe is beginning to crumble. The reduction of support for Ukraine's defense has already created a power vacuum that Russia is eager to fill. Moscow is now looking toward the Suwalki Gap, the narrow corridor connecting the Baltic states to their NATO allies.

If Russia moves on the Gap while the US is bogged down in a Venezuelan counter-insurgency, Washington may be forced to choose between its own hemisphere and its European allies. This realization is pushing Poland and the Baltic states toward independent, perhaps desperate, defense sub-alliances as they realize that US hegemony has finally found its limit.

In the Pacific, the Venezuelan strike has set a dangerous precedent. Beijing's logic is simple: if the US can seize oil to secure its future, China can seize semiconductors. From the perspective of the competing powers, Taiwan remains the ultimate prize, holding the keys to the next century's industrial intelligence.

The regional response could involve Japan. Under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Tokyo has officially invoked its "Red Line" protocols. Any Chinese move to fill the vacuum left by the US Seventh Fleet in the Philippine Sea is now classified as a Survival-Threatening Situation (STS). This legally triggers Japan's right to collective self-defense, marking the end of its post-war pacifism. As Japan rearms beyond the limits of its constitution, the Pacific has become a powderkeg where neutrality is no longer an option.

Western economic hegemony is also under attack. On January 1, 2026, China launched Digital RMB 2.0, a smart-contract-based currency designed to bypass the SWIFT system entirely. Combined with the mBridge project, this allows for international trade settlement without any reliance on US infrastructure.

This technological shift is a weapon. In response to the Caracas strike, China could freeze Western assets within the mBridge ledger, treating the US intervention as a seizure of Chinese property. When the systems of finance fail to clear, the economic war ends and the shooting war begins. The petrodollar system, which allowed the US to fund its national debt and military for decades, is effectively on life support.

Would the world's manufacturing floor ever go to war with its best customer?

We have been here before. In 1914, leaders believed that the high volume of trade between the UK and Germany would prevent a total war. They were wrong. When states fear their supply chains will be cut, they strike to secure the source.

The January 3rd strike in Venezuela proves that financial wealth is secondary to survival. The US holds the oil, China seeks the chips, and Russia wants the land. We live in a system in disequilibrium where resource scarcity (including energy, water, food) dictates policy, and could rapidly push the world towards global chaos.

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People choose solitude when the cost of belonging exceeds the benefit of cooperation. For the collapse-aware, this calculation stems from a realization that the modern social contract is anchored to a sinking ship.

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Staying within the system requires a daily performance of normalcy that feels like a lie. Leaving the system, yet remaining tethered to people who still believe in it, creates a friction that burns through mental energy.

Those entrenched in normalcy bias often view collapse awareness as a pathology. To avoid constant gaslighting or the burden of carrying others' denial, the aware individual steps away.

Yet, community-building remains an integral part of managing collapse. The common argument for community centers on survival. A group provides a labor force and constant security.

However, this assumes that the people in the group are reliable. In reality, groups introduce internal risks like theft, betrayal, and incompetence.

A solo person has a smaller physical footprint. They consume fewer calories and leave less evidence of their presence. In a scenario of systemic decline, being invisible is often a better defense than being fortified. Solitude eliminates the need for consensus, allowing for instant movement and adaptation.

There is a frequent conflation between solitude and independence. Independence is the ability to provide for oneself; solitude is the state of being alone. One can be independent while living in a city, and one can be in solitude while remaining entirely dependent on a dying system for supplies. True independence requires a wide array of skills, whereas solitude is merely a spatial and social arrangement.

The distinction between a hermit and a solitary person lies in the relationship with the outside world. A hermit typically retreats for spiritual reasons, cutting off all ties. Solitude, in the context of collapse awareness, is a tactical choice. A solitary person remains an observer, gathering information and maintaining tools to interact with the world when the benefits outweigh the risks.

Physiological and mental trade-offs are significant. Solitude lowers cortisol levels by removing social conflict and the stress of managing others' expectations. It provides a clarity of mind that is difficult to achieve in a crowd. However, the human brain requires social feedback. Without external verification, an individual can drift into obsessive thought patterns or paranoia. The brain can treat minor internal anxieties as major external threats. Chronic loneliness triggers a sustained inflammatory response, which can accelerate cognitive decline and weaken the immune system. The absence of touch and verbal exchange leads to hyper-vigilance where the mind never rests, eventually leading to burnout.

Physically, the greatest risk is a minor injury becoming fatal. A broken leg is a manageable event for a duo but a death sentence for a lone actor.

A hybrid strategy addresses these risks by creating a network of solitary individuals. This decentralized community involves people living independently while maintaining functional ties. Unlike a traditional commune, this network relies on distance as a buffer. Members might trade skills via drop points or scheduled check-ins without the obligation of shared living. This model provides the security of a collective without the interpersonal friction of shared space.

It is also possible to remain solitary within a larger community without appearing anti-social by framing the behavior as personal discipline. This involves setting clear boundaries regarding time. One can participate in essential functions (e.g. local governance or maintenance) while opting out of high-friction social engagements. By being consistently helpful but socially brief, an individual gains a reputation for being reliable rather than reclusive. This preserves the benefits of a group while maintaining psychological autonomy.

While soing this, one must reconcile the need for a network with the reality that most people remain trapped in normalcy bias.

Finding a group of like-minded collapse-aware individuals is often impossible. However, a functional network does not require shared ideology; it only requires shared interests or mutual dependencies. One can build a distant community by connecting with people who possess tangible skills or trades without discussing systemic decline. In these cases, the bond is transactional or based on a common hobby. A solitary person can be a member of a local gardening club, a radio group, or a volunteer fire department. These people do not need to be aware to be useful.

By engaging on the basis of skill rather than philosophy, a soloist avoids the friction of debating the future while securing a place within a web of capable individuals.

To maintain this network, a soloist focuses on low-frequency, high-value interactions. Interactions revolve around a purpose that aids your objectives. Furthermore, establishing a mutual aid agreement with a few trusted neighbors (where the agreement is limited to specific emergencies) creates a functional bond that does not require friendship.

After deciding on a solitary path, the priority is redundancy. Since there is no partner to provide backup, every critical system or network connection must have a secondary fail-safe. It's better to have 3 carpenters in your network than one.

Critically, regardless of one's network, self-reliance remains a cornerstone to living in any form of solitude. Skills development today will benefit you in the future.

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