You'll hear a lot of talk about calls for a UK General Election because T...

Julian Bond - 2016-07-12 08:12:38+0000 - Updated: 2016-07-12 08:12:38+0000

You'll hear a lot of talk about calls for a UK General Election because Theresa May wasn't democratically elected. Quite apart from misunderstanding representative democracy there's a small problem that hardly gets mentioned. It took Nick Clegg last night to recognise it in public, but even he glossed over the problems. He was the architect of the Fixed term act of 2011. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011 which was a sop to the LibDems to get them on board for the coalition. This act requires 5 year fixed terms but Clegg claimed on TV that there are methods built in whereby elections can be called early. Well, in order for a general election to be held before the term is up, one of three things has to happen.
1) The act is repealed
2) There is a vote of no confidence in the government, without a second vote of confidence in the government in 14 days. Both by a simple majority in the House of Commons.
3) There is a vote for an early election passed by 2/3 of the MPs

There is precedent in Europe for option 2) to be deliberately pushed by an incumbent coalition but it's very unusual. Try and imagine a Tory government with a majority calling for no confidence in itself with a 3 line whip to make it happen! Not going to happen. Try and imagine a coalition of SNP, Labour and Tory renegades getting a vote of no confidence passed against a Tory 3 line whip. Again, not going to happen.

So unless something really, really bad happens or for some reason Theresa May resigns, it looks like we're stuck with her and the Tories till 7-May-2020.

And she'll be watching you. http://www.thecanary.co/2016/07/11/theresa-may-becomes-new-pm-need-share-sht-video/
https://youtu.be/D2fSXp6N-vs

ps. http://hasarticle50beeninvoked.uk/

Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Stef Kunzer - 2016-07-12 09:37:06+0000

I disagree somewhat. If the Tories decide they want an election, they can force option C. Why might they want that? Well because they will win government (legally for the next 5 years) if they do. Labour are in utter disarray. Not sure where you stand on it, but the right wing of Labour attacking the left wing of Labour has left them in disarray. Not only the PLP, but in the eyes of the voting public. The papers will surely support the Tories, claiming even more disarray in Labour, and hey presto, an elected Theresa May for 5 years. That's if they've got some nous about them.
Needless to say I think this is a terrible prospect.

Julian Bond - 2016-07-12 12:18:05+0000

You think they can force a 2/3 majority when they have 330 of 650? That's quite a long way from the 434 needed when Labour isn't ready. Would Labour/SNP vote for an early election? Neither of them stand to gain much.